Orioles vs. Yankees: The New York Yankees enter the final series of the regular season with everything on the line. After sweeping the White Sox earlier this week, the Bronx Bombers cannot afford to take their foot off the gas if they want to secure the AL East. Every game matters as divisional rivals, including the Rays and Orioles, look to play spoiler and upset the balance of the race. The stakes could not be higher, and the drama is guaranteed to unfold with intensity.
Tonight, all eyes turn to Aaron Judge, the captain and potential AL MVP, as he faces Baltimore’s standout southpaw, Trevor Rogers. It is a matchup that could define both the division and individual legacies.
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Orioles vs. Yankees Best Bets – September 26
Can Aaron Judge carry the Yankees to an AL East crown?
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The final series of the year is here, and the New York Yankees can not afford to ease up if they want to lock down the AL East. After sweeping the White Sox earlier in the week, the Bronx Bombers now turn to a divisional showdown to close out the regular season. At the very least, winning two out of three would keep them right in the thick of it.
The Rays and Orioles are more than happy to play spoiler, each looking to upset their AL East rivals fighting for the crown. That sets the stage for a high-drama finish as the race comes down to the wire.
All eyes tonight will be on the captain and the frontrunner for AL MVP, as Aaron Judge steps in against Baltimore’s ace left-hander, Trevor Rogers. Rogers has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, though Baltimore’s overall struggles have kept his brilliance under the radar. Just last week, Rogers silenced the Yankees in the Bronx, tossing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts while allowing just one hit.
Rogers vs. Judge
Judge may be 0-for-6 lifetime against Rogers, but I do not care about small samples. He profiles perfectly in this spot. Batters-Box gives Judge the third-highest rating on the slate tonight, and when he earns elite marks, the numbers speak loudly. Over the last three years, in 314 elite-rated matchups, Judge has homered 30% of the time. At home, that jumps to 31% across 129 such ratings, and this season alone, he is clearing the fence at a 29% clip in 73 elite-rated spots. Those are massive, trustworthy sample sizes.
The splits only build the case further. Judge is batting .340 with a 1.247 OPS and 221 wRC+ against left-handed pitching at Yankee Stadium this season, and he has strong results against every pitch in Rogers’ arsenal.
Despite Rogers’ dominance, his regression signs against right-handed hitters are glaring. The last 30 he has faced have posted a 70% hard-hit rate with a .317 xBA, .623 xSLG, and .338 xwOBA. His ERA over that stretch sits at 0.00, but his xERA is a shaky 4.25. Add in a 50% fly ball rate, and the formula points to a right-handed Yankee going deep tonight.
Could it be Stanton or another bat? Possibly. But my money is on the captain.
The stage is set for one of the most meaningful final weekends in recent memory. The Yankees are chasing the division, the Orioles are eager to spoil, and Judge is primed for a statement swing against one of the league’s toughest left-handers. Whether it decides the AL East or just adds another highlight to his MVP case, expect fireworks in the Bronx tonight.
Bonus: Aaron Judge 2+ Home Runs (+1580)
Best Bet: Aaron Judge Home Run (+180) odds via BetOnline
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