Orioles vs Nationals: Tyler O’Neill has been ice cold in April, but there is value in betting on the bounce back. The matchup, the data, and the context all point toward a turnaround. Let us dig in and make the case for why today is the day.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 87-125-2 (+8.63u)
Last week Betting MLB: 23-32 (+1.55u)
Orioles vs Nationals Odds
Can Orioles outfielder, Tyler O’Neill snap his cold streak with an explosive night in DC?
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Runline
Orioles: +1.5 (-195)
Nationals: -1.5 (+170)
Total
Over: 8.5 (-112)
Under: 8.5 (-108)
Moneyline
Orioles: +104
Nationals: -115
Orioles vs Nationals Best Bet
It is time to back a guy who is in a bit of a slump—Orioles outfielder Tyler O’Neill. He is batting a cool, crisp .118 in April, with only six hits this month. His hit prop is priced at $1.45 today, and I believe that number is simply too low to pass up for a player due for a turnaround. O’Neill owns an elite rating on Batters-Box.com and matches up very well against Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore.
In 53 elite-rated games, O’Neill records a hit 64% of the time. In 19 elite-rated road games, he records a hit 63% of the time. He also hits a home run 20.75% of the time. Did I sprinkle? Of course.
O’Neill owns a career .262 average with a .891 OPS and a 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Gore has a below-average hitter matchup rating in ISO and hard contact, surrendering nearly 37% hard contact to opposing batters.
Gore throws fastballs 54% of the time. I am a sucker for betting on a guy to get a hit off a pitcher who leans on the heater. Despite O’Neill batting a putrid .095 against fastballs this season (a 100-pitch sample), he is a career .263 hitter with an .815 OPS and a 132 wRC+ against fastballs. His 2024 numbers mirrored that career profile, so this is just a slow start in 2025.
With nice weather in our nation’s capital, this is a great day to snap a two-game hitless streak and get back to crushing baseballs. Pay the juice on the hit. Sprinkle the home run. O’Neill is good for it.
Best Bet: Tyler O’Neill 1+ Hit (-145) odds via BetOnline
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