Orioles vs. Phillies: The Orioles were embarrassed last night, but tonight brings a golden bounce-back spot. Taijuan Walker has been brutal at home, and Baltimore’s bats are better than the scoreboard showed. Expect a response from a lineup stacked with elite-rated hitters.
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Last Month: 55-101 (-3.06u)
Last Week: 23-21 (+9.53u)
Orioles vs. Phillies Best Bets – August 5
Can Jackson Holliday get the Birds started this evening against the Phillies?
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The Orioles took a backhand to the face last night, losing 13-3 in Philadelphia. Tonight, they look to get their revenge as they face one of, if not the worst, pitchers on the slate this evening—Mr. Taijuan Walker. The 32-year-old has been shuffled all over the Phillies pitching staff, moving from starter to reliever and back again.
In his last five home games, Walker holds a 6.00 ERA, 9.15 xERA, 47% hard-hit rate, and an eye-popping 5.00 HR/9. Opposing hitters have a .339 xBA, .816 xSLG, and .463 xwOBA against him in Philadelphia. Overall, at home, he owns a 4.78 ERA with a .263 opponent batting average.
Orioles vs. Walker
Baltimore enters this one with four elite-rated hitters on Batters-Box’s current season ratings. They also have only two hitters above the league strikeout rate and five above the ground ball rate.
Despite being a massive disappointment this season, the Orioles are still playing respectable baseball. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, five hitters own a sub-.300 average. They are averaging 2.34 runs in the first five innings this season, while the Phillies allow 2.23 runs at home.
Given how poorly Walker has pitched in Philadelphia, it is hard to ignore a team with four elite-rated hitters and a handful of bats seeing the ball well. Getting three runs at plus money feels like the right angle.
If this prop were heavily juiced, I would probably pass on backing a team that can be tough to trust. But after a 10-run loss last night, the Birds should have some juice of their own this evening.
Let’s get in and get out, with the Orioles jumping on Walker early and often.
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