NL MVP Race: Is There a Race? | September 1, 2025

Kyle Schwarber - Phillies Nationals picks

NL MVP: The 2025 MVP races in both leagues are shaping up exactly as expected, with few surprises on the horizon. Fans hoping for fresh faces to take home the awards will likely be disappointed, as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani remain the clear favorites. Even with other players having career years, including Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber, the two stars still dominate the conversation. The debate is interesting, especially when considering Schwarber’s historic production and Raleigh’s strong case in the AL, but the reality is that voters typically favor proven impact players.

Let us break down the NL race and examine the contenders.

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Updated NL MVP Award Odds

Is there anyway Shohei Ohtani can lose this award?

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world. BetOnline offers a wide variety of markets paired with the most competitive lines available, making them the go-to site to place your bets. Sign up today with Promo Code BNEWS and get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000, as well as $10 instantly in your account.

- Shohei Ohtani -1400
- Kyle Schwarber +500
- Manny Machado +12500

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I would like to start out by asking, why do they still have Machado’s odds up there? I see no point. Especially when the AL is a two-horse race, which is the same for the NL, even though it is essentially a wrap for both leagues.

Sadly, for those hoping to see a new set of faces win the AL and NL MVPs, that will not be the case in 2025. It will almost certainly be Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani taking home the awards once again. Some believe there is a stronger case to be made for Cal Raleigh over Judge, but I disagree. If you would like to read more on that, click this link.

However, despite what the odds suggest, there is a valid argument for Kyle Schwarber over Ohtani. The race could be closer than many think, but it is still not worth betting. Even with it being a clear down year for Ohtani, the award still likely belongs to him. Both leagues have similar situations, with runners-up having massive career years. That does not automatically make them MVPs. Players can have career seasons, receive recognition, and still come in second. That is simply how it works.

If this were a season where Ohtani was still recovering and not pitching, Schwarber would have a much stronger case against the face of baseball. Schwarber currently leads all of baseball in runs batted in with 119, is one home run shy of tying Raleigh for the league lead, and is only 38 points behind Ohtani for second in OPS.

I mentioned that this is a down year for Ohtani, and it is statistically his worst season in years. If the season ended today, he would have his lowest batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS since 2022. That season, he came in second in AL MVP voting, losing to Aaron Judge, who broke the AL home run record. In 2022, he also posted a 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. This season, through 32 innings pitched, Ohtani has a 4.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He is slowly coming back from injury, but he has struggled on the mound.

For Schwarber, this may be his best season in years. He will likely finish the year with his highest OPS since 2021 and is on pace to reach 100 walks for the third straight season, currently just 11 shy. He is one home run away from hitting 50 for the first time in his career. If he can push his batting average above .250 to close the season, it would be his first .250-plus season since 2021.

There is a fun argument to be made for Schwarber winning the award, but I would still not advise anyone to rush to the counter and bet on him. The voters will likely favor Ohtani, due to his pitching, even if he has not had his usual dominance this year.

At the end of the day, this AL and NL MVP race is likely to follow the script many expected. Judge and Ohtani remain the clear favorites, despite strong seasons from players like Schwarber and Raleigh. Schwarber’s historic production and career highs make for an exciting story, but the award is still likely to go to Ohtani because of his dual-threat impact on the mound and at the plate. Voters tend to reward the full package, and this season is no different. Fans can appreciate Schwarber’s remarkable year, but when the ballots are cast, Ohtani will likely take home the hardware once again. That is the reality of the 2025 MVP race.

If you would like to read more about the AL MVP race, please click this link and enjoy.