The red hot Kansas City Royals are at home hosting the New York Mets tonight, and as a man of science, I will be dying on the hill that is my System Play once again. Friday Night’s have brought a special magic into the air at Kauffman Stadium, and I’ll be counting on it tonight.
Get in on all the action with the best online sportsbooks and check out our expert MLB Picks below!
New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals: MLB Picks & Predictions
Pete Alonso and the Mets have lost two straight games
This is the only meeting between these teams this season, and a couple righties take the mound for their squads.
The Royals are on the come up. They’ve won four straight games, coming off a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and winning six of their last seven overall. Kansas City has moved into second place of the AL Central, but are still 13 games behind the Detroit Tigers, and are 3.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the final Wildcard spot. Plenty of baseball still to be played.
The New York Mets are chasing the Philadelphia Phillies in the two-horse race that is the NL East. The Mets are 1.5 games behind Philly right now, with the Miami Marlins in third place, a full 11.5 games out of first place. New York has lost two straight in Baltimore, they are just 20-27 on the road this season, and are just 2-10 away from home since the middle of June.
Matchup Information – Mets vs. Royals – July 11
- Venue & Location: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Friday, July 11, 2025
- First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. Eastern
Pitching Matchup
- New York Mets: Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.47 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
- Kansas City Royals: Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.83 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Mets vs. Royals Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world. BetOnline offers a wide variety of markets paired with the most competitive lines available, making them the go-to site to place your bets. Sign up today with Promo Code FREE250 and get a 50% deposit match up to $250, as well as 100 Free Spins in the online casino.
Run Line
- Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Royals +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline
- Mets -126
- Royals +114
Total
- Over 9 (-126)
- Under 9 (+106)
Kodai Senga is set to make his first start since coming off the IL. It will be his first outing since June 12, and he faces a Royals roster that is starting to see the ball very well.
As for Michael Wacha, his splits improve at home with his ERA dropping below 3.00. He’s lost three straight and five of his last six outings, but the Mets’ batting average has been well below their season average for two months now.
Of course, we are dying with the system and hoping for a Royals upset.
New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals Best Bets
Jac Caglianone and the Royals take on the Mets tonight
Mets vs. Royals MLB Prediction: Royals Win, Over 9
Best Bet: Royals ML (+114) BetOnline
Let me just give you the numbers straight up. This year in seven games at home on Friday Night, the Royals have only won three times, winning by two twice, and scoring 5+ runs twice (although they scored 4+ two times as well). But, since June 30, 2023, they have played 25 total games at home on a Friday Night. Here’s how they’ve done against the ML, the Team Total (5+ Runs), and the RL (-1.5 even if they were the underdog).
- ML: 18-7 (72%) – Straight Up Winner
- TT: 17-8 (68%) – Scored 4+ three times also
- RL: 15-10 (60%) – Won by two runs
Tonight we get a bet that has been hitting at 72% for the past 25 games, for the price of something happening less than 47% of the time. The same is true for the Team Total which is listed at over 4.5 for (+109), which we are also on.
Here’s some more numbers to sway you.
While the Royals are not hitting significantly better at home like they were last season, they have been very good recently. Their team batting average of .245 has increased to .256 over the month of July, where the Royals are 7-2 as a team. There is plenty of morale in the clubhouse, they are trending in the right direction, and I trust them to give Wacha the run support he needs to keep this winning streak alive.
Still Didn’t Get Your MLB Fix?
Here at Betting News, we offer Free Expert Picks for every major sports league. We also host daily streams on our Twitch Channel with our best bets, as well as sweat out games on Playback! Be sure to tune into everything we have going on at our Youtube, TikTok, and X pages as well.
For more MLB action, check out these pages below.
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER