Nationals vs. Yankees: The Yankees wasted no time flexing their bats in game one against the Nationals, plating ten runs and showing why this lineup is one of the most dangerous in baseball. Now they return for game two against a left-handed arm that has been trending the wrong way since the All-Star break. When you line up New York’s recent surge with the struggles on the mound for Washington, there is one clear angle that stands out. The market has left us a very playable number, and it is exactly where we will be looking tonight.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.
Last Month: 74-100 (+12.37)
Last Week: 13-20 (+0.14)
Nationals vs. Yankees Best Bets – August 26
Will Jazz Chisholm be the spark plug the Yankees need tonight?
Check out BetOnline’s New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!
After putting up ten runs on the Nationals in game one of this three-game set, the Bronx Bombers look to keep their hot streak rolling against a left-handed pitcher who has been struggling since the All-Star break.
We are all over my bread-and-butter play this evening: Yankees first five team total over 2.5 runs at -110. A very fair price for one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last few weeks. New York has been the number one offense in the first five innings all season long, averaging over three runs per game. Shockingly, they have averaged just under three at home this year. That short porch argument looks pretty silly now. Anywho, this offense is primed for yet another explosive first five.
Yankees Trends
Over the last two weeks, the Yankees rank first in ISO, walk rate, hard contact, and barrel percentage. On top of that, they sit second in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS during that same stretch. It only gets better from here. They face Nationals southpaw Mackenzie Gore this evening, and this is the perfect type of offense to back against a left-handed starter. Overall this season, New York ranks first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and walk rate against left-handed pitching. They are second in ISO and fifth in hard contact. Even over the last four weeks, their numbers against southpaws remain top ten across the board.
According to Batters-Box, the Yankees own the third-highest rated offense on the slate. Their lineup features four elite-rated hitters, two great-rated hitters, six above the strikeout rate, and only two above the league ground ball rate. One of those elite bats is none other than the captain, Aaron Judge, who also ranks as the number one hitter on the entire day.
The classic Judge versus a lefty matchup. Since the beginning of last season, Judge owns a .306 batting average, .488 OBP, .734 SLG, and a ridiculous 1.223 OPS against left-handed pitching. Over their last 90 plate appearances against southpaws, five Yankees hitters are batting above .247, slugging above .457, and owning an OPS north of .757.
Gore vs. Bronx Bombers
Gore’s recent numbers may suggest he has been more effective on the road, but I would argue that is more a product of who he has faced rather than improved performance. His last three road starts were against the Giants, Astros, and Twins. The Astros tagged him for six runs on eight hits in just 5.1 innings, while the Twins and Giants combined for four hits and one run—two of the weaker offenses in baseball. Regression feels due. Against the Mets and Phillies, his two prior starts, he gave up five runs on ten hits combined.
Over his last five starts, Gore owns a 6.93 ERA, 6.40 xERA, and 4.40 xFIP. During that stretch he is allowing 53% hard contact, a 15.6% barrel rate, and 2.19 HR/9. Opposing hitters hold a .304 xBA, .599 xSLG, and .402 xwOBA.
With four of the Yankees’ six top-rated bats swinging from the right side tonight, it is worth diving into how Gore has fared against righties. The last 90 right-handed hitters he has faced have put up video game numbers: .457 xBA, .934 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA. He is allowing 58% hard contact, an 18% barrel rate, and nearly three home runs per nine innings in that split, while carrying a 6.87 ERA, 7.02 xERA, and 4.25 xFIP.
I am more surprised this number is not set at 3.5 runs, or that the juice is not heavier. Maybe oddsmakers are clinging to Gore’s road splits, but that feels due for regression. This is a strong spot for the Yankees to come out firing early and deliver another explosive performance at the plate.
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-110) odds via BetOnline
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
- Picks & Odds for the NFL
- NFL Betting Guide for Beginners
- Pick & Odds for NCAAF
- NCAAF Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the MLB
- MLB Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NBA
- NBA Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NHL
- NHL Betting Guide for Beginners
More Betting Stories