Nationals vs. Twins: Looking to bounce back after a rough Thursday, we are heading straight to a familiar spot. The Nationals’ offense finds itself in a dream matchup today against one of the lowest-rated arms on the slate. Value meets opportunity with this first-five play.
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Last Month: 46-100 (-12.19u)
Last Week: 16-26 (+2.22u)
Nationals vs. Twins Best Bets – July 25
Can James Wood spark a fire in this Nationals offense?
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Heading back to the bread and butter after an 0-3 Thursday. I hate Thursdays. We are taking the Nationals to go over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at $1.35. One, I think this is the perfect number to back a team like Washington. Two, the price is not too juicy. It is fair and worth paying.
The Nationals come into today with the second highest rated offense on Batters-Box. Their lineup includes four elite-rated hitters, none rated poorly. Six of their hitters are above the league strikeout rate, and only two are above the league ground ball rate. They have averaged over 1.5 runs in the first five all season. Minnesota, on the other hand, is allowing over two runs in the first five this season.
Today, Washington faces Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who has one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day. His matchup metrics—wOBA, ISO, and hard contact percentage—are all poor. He is allowing over 41% hard contact, and 94% of his arsenal grades below league average per FanGraphs.
Matthews has a 6.26 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, allowing 5.6 hits and 3.2 runs per start. Four of the five teams he has faced have scored at least two runs against him.
Washington’s offense may not be elite, but it is strong enough in this matchup. Pay the juice. Take the 1.5 runs.
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