Nationals vs. Padres: James Wood Prop Predictions

Nationals vs. Padres: James Wood has been locked in at the plate, and this afternoon sets up well for another strong showing. He draws a favorable matchup against Nick Pivetta, who leans on a fastball-heavy arsenal that plays right into Wood’s strengths. With elite trends and road success backing him, his hit prop stands out.

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Last Month: 71-157 (-16.44u)

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Nationals vs. Padres Best Bet – June 25

Can James Wood keep this hot streak alive in San Diego?

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Time to take a closer look at Washington Nationals star James Wood and his player props this afternoon. The one that jumped off the board was his hit prop, currently priced at -150. If you are not in the juice-paying business, I get it—but this is a spot worth the squeeze.

Over the past 15 days, Wood has been locked in—batting .322 with a .678 slugging percentage and a 1.098 OPS. He is coming off an 0-4 night after a strong showing on Monday and looks to bounce back this afternoon against Nick Pivetta.

So, why just the hit prop when his bases or hits, runs, and RBI props are plus money? Because hit prices vary daily, and knowing what value is for each player is key. I would play this up to -160, but not a cent higher.

James Wood Elite Trends

Wood owns an elite rating on Batters-Box today. In 65 elite-rated matchups, he has recorded a hit 67% of the time and cleared 1.5 HRR in 53% of them. On the road, where he has thrived this season, his trends are even better. In 33 elite-rated road games, he has recorded a hit 78% of the time, gone over 1.5 total bases 51% of the time, and over 1.5 HRR in 63% of them.

Today, he faces a pitcher who leans heavily on his four-seamer—Nick Pivetta throws it 45% of the time, followed by a slider at 20%. Wood is crushing fastballs this season, hitting .375 with a .738 SLG and .491 wOBA. He is the Nationals’ best hitter against fastballs—and sliders. Against sliders, he is hitting .283 with a .500 SLG and .417 wOBA.

Pivetta has been tough at home, which is why I am staying disciplined and sticking with the hit prop, with only a sprinkle on the home run. Still, nearly 30% of his arsenal grades below league average this year, and Wood has been handling Pivetta’s entire arsenal very well this season.

With a .290/.387/.548/.935 slash line on the road this season, the juice on Wood to record a hit is worth every drop.

Best Bet: James Wood 1+ Hit (-150) odds via BetOnline

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