MLB Best Prop Bets: Two elite hitters. One struggling lefty. A great setup in Cleveland tonight, where both Jose Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are primed to produce.
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Best MLB Prop Bets Today, June 24
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Last Month: 71-154 (-15.24u)
Last Week: 14-37 (-8.25u)
Ice cold June, but we went up +2.5 units last night.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) odds via BetOnline
Jose Ramirez has been outstanding this season. Will that success carry over into tonight’s matchup?
We are attacking two bets from the same game.
Let us begin with the home team. We are taking Jose Ramirez’s total bases prop over, priced at $1.15. The Guardians star has been phenomenal this season, and that success should continue tonight at home against Toronto left-hander, Eric Lauer, who owns a poor rating on Batters-Box. On top of that, he carries below-average marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. Over his last 81 innings, Lauer is allowing 44% hard contact. Who produces a ton of hard contact? Jose Ramirez—who carries a 50% hard contact rate in this matchup.
Lauer throws fastballs 46% of the time, which is the best pitch in his arsenal. So far this season, Ramirez owns a run value of +5 against fastballs, along with a .344 average, .578 slugging percentage, and .402 wOBA. The other solid pitch in Lauer’s mix is his cutter, thrown 18% of the time. Just like with fastballs, Ramirez hammers cutters—batting .360 with a .807 OPS and 146 wRC+.
At home this season against left-handed pitching, the Guardians third baseman is batting .333 with a .887 OPS and 146 wRC+. Overall at home, he owns a .315 average, .528 slugging percentage, and .908 OPS.
Ramirez has the second-highest rating on Batters-Box today and carries strong elite-rated trends. In 15 elite-rated home games, he records a hit 86% of the time, two hits 33% of the time, and goes over this prop 60% of the time. It is not the largest sample, but he has gone over this number in six of his last 10 elite-rated home games.
I love how well he is seeing the ball, and the price is good enough for me to pay the juice.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-113) odds via BetOnline
Can Vladimir Guerrero keep up his road dominance?
Now to the other side. Toronto star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., just like Ramirez, is crushing left-handers this season. Through 17 road games against left-handed pitching, Guerrero Jr. is hitting .343 with a .896 OPS and a 147 wRC+. He has also been much better on the road overall—batting .293 with a .758 OPS.
He enters today with a strong rating on Batters-Box and continues to trend well. In 38 road games with an elite rating, he records a hit 71% of the time, two hits 39% of the time, and goes over this prop in 52% of those games.
Today, he faces Guardians left-hander Logan Allen, who comes in with a poorly rated matchup wOBA and strikeout percentage. According to FanGraphs, 55% of his arsenal grades below league average. His best pitch is a cutter, which he only throws 13% of the time. Guerrero Jr. owns a .316 xBA and .665 xSLG against cutters. He has not seen them particularly well this season, but historically he has crushed them. He dominates the rest of Allen’s arsenal, so I can live with him not punishing 13% of it.
This feels like a strong spot for the Blue Jays slugger to find success at the plate, especially on the road where he has been far more productive. After going 0-2 with two walks on Sunday and getting a day off Monday—this sets up as a perfect get-right night.
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