MLB Must Bet Props: Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 | October 19, 2024

Happy Saturday!

Yankees vs. Guardians, Game 5 of the ALCS — the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the Yankees just one win away from securing their World Series spot, we’re diving back into the first five inning props.

Let’s get into it!

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Friday’s write up went 1-0. Pete Alonso did homer cashing one of the three sprinkle props.

Yankees vs Guardians F5 Over 4.5 (-135)

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After an amazing Friday night, we’re back at it again. Tonight, we head to Game 5 of the ALCS, with the Yankees just one win away from punching their ticket to the World Series. As usual, we’re sticking with first five inning props, and today we’re taking the over 3.5. Tanner Bibee and Carlos Rodon are on the mound, both making their second appearances of the series.

Carlos Rodon

Rodon went six innings on Monday, giving up one run on three hits while striking out ten. However, according to Batters-Box.com, he’s got a poorly rated average hitter matchup in terms of wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rate. The Guardians will have four elite-rated hitters in today’s lineup, with no poorly rated ones and only one batter above the league average ground ball rate. This spells trouble for Rodon. While his Game 1 start was impressive, the 31-year-old has struggled with consistency this season, posting a 3.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He’s allowed 2+ runs in 22 of his 32 starts.

Tanner Bibee

On the other side, Bibee is coming off a rough outing on Tuesday, where he gave up three runs on five hits in just 1.1 innings. Today, he’s facing a poorly rated average hitter matchup in terms of ISO and ground ball rate. The Yankees feature three elite-rated hitters, with no poorly rated ones and zero batters above the league average ground ball rate. Although Bibee has a slightly better rating than Rodon in hard contact, it’s only a 2% difference — and we know how much damage the Yankee sluggers can do with hard contact.

With both teams combining for five first-five-inning runs over the last three games, and the offensive firepower they’ve shown all series, 3.5 runs feels too low. I’ll gladly root for runs in what’s been an already chaotic series.

Go Yanks.

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