Happy Wednesday!
The must-bet props are back after an incredible night of action. Today, we’re looking to keep that momentum going. As more people shift their focus to football and other sports, we’ll take full advantage of the books overlooking America’s pastime.
Tuesday Recap
Trust. Your. Plums. https://t.co/b2ryU8Moqe pic.twitter.com/Y9GJ7tIwyx
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 4, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up swept we cashed all three plays.
Twins F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Twins stud Edouard Julien dishing out high fives
The Stank:
The first five team totals went 2-3 on my full card last night, but we’re going right back to the well. Today, I’m all in on the Minnesota Twins to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings.
According to Batters-Box.com, the Twins’ offense features five elite-rated hitters, with no poorly rated ones and only three hitters above the league strikeout rate. Despite having just one elite-rated hitter in the default ratings, Rays starter Tyler Alexander holds the second-worst pitcher rating on today’s slate.
Given the number is set at 1.5, it’s surprising considering the Twins’ lineup strength, Alexander’s poor ratings, and the Twins’ average of over two runs per game in the first five innings. Although they perform better at home, they still average 2.45 runs on the road in the first five.
After yesterday’s disappointing loss to the Rays, where they managed only one run, the Twins should be fired up and ready to rebound against Alexander and the Rays to secure the series win.
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (+115)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
Misprice of the century—why is this prop priced at plus money?
Sure, it’s a left-handed hitter versus a left-handed pitcher, and Matt Wallner has one hit in his last four games. But there’s no reason a hitter should be plus money to get a hit. I’ll take this bet every time, regardless of the outcome. Wallner is a player I’m confident in.
According to Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings, Wallner holds an elite rating. His performance trends are outstanding: with an elite rating this season, he records a hit 86.36% of the time (based on a sample size of 22). He goes over 1.5 bases 59% of the time and hits a home run 27.27% of the time. These trends are incredibly promising.
Today, he faces Rays starter Tyler Alexander, who has four of his five pitches below league average. His only positive pitch is his slider, which is barely above league value. Against these pitches, Wallner has impressive numbers—especially against cutters, Alexander’s most used pitch. Wallner is batting .455 with an OPS of 1.418 and a wRC+ of 299. He also performs well against changeups and sliders.
Despite the lefty-lefty matchup, this is a prime opportunity to back Matt Wallner to record a hit.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Matt Wallner 2+ Bases (+255)
- Matt Wallner Home Run (+640)
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @C_marchio2 for all of my picks and sports opinions!
Be sure to check out all things Betting News on X and Twitch!
While you are at it go get some merch at our Betting News Store!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
Interested in Learning More About Betting on the MLB?
We have tons of MLB betting resources, ranging from daily predictions to expert picks and you can find them below to help you get started.
Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more daily sports betting insight and more from the Betting News team.