Happy Sunday!
Game two of the NLDS between the Padres and Dodgers is shaping up to be a wild one. With both teams bringing firepower to the plate, two standout props offer some serious value in this matchup.
Let’s dive into what caught my eye this morning!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-0
2024 MLB Season: +14.92 Units
Jack Flaherty Over 1.5 Walks (-105)
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Will we see a Jack Flaherty masterclass tonight?
Back to another pitcher prop after Zack Wheeler’s masterclass yesterday. We’re heading to Los Angeles, taking Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty’s walk prop at over 1.5.
The 28-year-old right-hander has allowed two walks in 11 of his 28 starts this season. Not the flashiest stat, but he’s hit this mark in four of his last five games and six of his last ten. Since joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Flaherty has averaged 1.9 walks per start.
The Padres are one of the most disciplined teams in baseball—they don’t strike out much, work the count, and battle every at-bat, which sets up plenty of walk opportunities. So far this postseason, San Diego has a walk rate of 8.5%, just a hair under the league average of 8.9%.
The two teams just faced off, and Flaherty gave up three walks in 5.0 innings. He will either come out and shove or repeat his September 25th outing, where he gave up three walks along with three runs on four hits.
Give me the walks!
Padres vs Dodgers F5 Over 4.5 Runs (-105)
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Now that we already know how much Jack Flaherty struggled against San Diego back in September, let’s dig into his matchup today. Over on Batters-Box.com, Flaherty has an above-average matchup rating but a poorly rated average hitter matchup ISO. He’s also allowing the second-most hard contact of any pitcher on the slate.
Flaherty faces three elite-rated Padres hitters today. As mentioned, the Padres lead the league in lowest strikeouts per game, and every at-bat is a battle with them. San Diego also ranks top 12 in first five runs, averaging 2.58 this season. On the road, that number jumps to 2.84, the fourth most in the league.
On the flip side, the Dodgers face Yu Darvish, who has the worst average hitter matchup ISO and allows the most hard contact among today’s starters. Darvish has allowed 2+ runs in nine of his 16 starts this season, with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
The Dodgers have the second-highest scoring offense in the first five at home, averaging 3.16 runs in that span.
Everything points toward early success for both offenses. Give me the first five over 4.5!
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