With Cal Raleigh officially entering the Home Run Derby, attention is shifting to the season-long home run leader market. The favorites are priced short, but that does not mean value is gone. One name further down the board has the profile to make a real push in the second half.
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Most Regular Season Home Runs Odds
Are you ready to trust Kyle Schwarber to unleash one of his trademark second-half power surges?
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- Aaron Judge -130
- Cal Raleigh +180
- Shohei Ohtani +300
- Kyle Schwarber +3000
- Eugenio Suarez +4500
- Corbin Carroll +10000
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With the announcement of Mariners star Cal Raleigh joining the Home Run Derby, it got me thinking—what do those odds look like right now? The Home Run Derby hangover is real and can slow participants down in the second half of the season. Raleigh at +180 is a no-go for me. I also have no interest in paying the juice on Aaron Judge or backing Shohei Ohtani at 3/1. I want more of a long shot price.
Where is the value?
I think there is a real case for Kyle Schwarber at 30/1. At the time of this writing, the Phillies slugger has 25 home runs, tied for fourth most in baseball. Schwarber’s bat tends to heat up as the weather does. August is his second-best month for home runs, and June is his best throughout his career.
The second half has historically been his stronger stretch—average, OBP, SLG, and OPS all improve after the break. At 30/1, you are getting an incredible price for a player who has hit 35 or more home runs in three of his last four seasons and has gone over 40 twice in that span.
Schwarber is the only name on that list I would feel confident backing.
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