Home Run Best Bets: Big names, strong splits, and favorable matchups headline today’s home run best bets. Rafael Devers and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both check every box. When the trends and pitch data align like this, you take the swing.
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Best Home Run Bets Today, June 30
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Last Month: 63-156 (-28.35u)
Last Week: 20-27 (+3.75u)
Cold June continues! It is a marathon, not a race. This is baseball!
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+450) odds via BetOnline
Back to back days leaving the yard? Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. deliver for us?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters Monday in top form, batting .281 with a .884 OPS in June and crushing left-handed pitching all season. At home against southpaws, he owns a 1.086 OPS and 202 wRC+, and today he draws Carlos Rodon—someone he is 8-for-12 against with a homer and two doubles.
Rodon leans on the fastball and slider, both pitches Guerrero dominates better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup. This is a strong matchup for a ball to leave the yard.
Want to read more about why I love the Guerrero Jr. today? Click this link.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Rafael Devers Home Run (+330) odds via BetOnline
Are we due for a big game from Rafael Devers?
Rafael Devers draws a strong matchup against Ryne Nelson, who ranks near the bottom in pitcher ratings on Batters-Box and struggles in key power metrics.
Nelson throws fastballs 61% of the time, and Devers leads the Giants in production against that pitch—owning a +8 run value, .944 OPS, and 175 wRC+. He also profiles well against Nelson’s cutter and has handled the rest of his arsenal with ease. After back-to-back hitless games, Devers is in a prime spot to bounce back with a long ball in Arizona.
Want to read more about why I love Devers today? Click this link.
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