Small slate, but plenty of value on the board tonight. Some of the league’s best bats are primed to leave the yard. Great weather, great prices—the perfect setup to cash a home run bet.
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Best Home Run Bets Today, June 23
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Last Month: 71-157 (-18.6u)
Last Week: 12-39 (-11.96u)
The June cold streak continues! It is a long season, the ups and downs are due.
Braves vs. Mets Best Home Run Bet
Will the Braves vs Mets series live up to the hype?
Best Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Home Run (+320) odds via BetOnline
One of the best matchups on the slate today is Ronald Acuña Jr. vs Paul Blackburn.
Acuña Jr. holds an elite rating in this matchup, and while his home run rate sits at just 19% across 61 elite-rated matchups, I still love this spot. He has been locked in at the plate over the past week, hitting .421 with a .530 OBP, .684 SLG, and a 1.277 OPS. It gets even better on the road, where he is batting .409 with a .614 slugging percentage and a 1.114 OPS this season.
Now to Mr. Blackburn, who has a 10.80 ERA at home this year—yes, from just one start, but still. Right-handed hitters are slashing .333/.625/.995 against him through four games. Last season, they torched him as well—batting .305 with a .904 OPS across 14 starts. Over the past three seasons, he has consistently posted below-average matchup metrics in wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate.
This is one of the premier matchups of the day. The weather is immaculate, and Acuña Jr. vs. Blackburn’s pitch mix is even better. Give me Acuña to leave the yard.
Rangers vs. Orioles Best Home Run Bet
Will we see some Wyatt Langford magic in Baltimore this evening?
Best Bet: Wyatt Langford Home Run (+500) odds via BetOnline
The Rangers young stud not only has a strong price at 5/1 to leave the yard, but also draws a great matchup. He is in a bit of a long-ball drought, having not homered since June 12 against the Twins in Minnesota.
Fortunately for Langford, he faces a left-handed arm that has been average at best to start the season. Over the past three seasons, Orioles starter Trevor Rogers has allowed 41.61% hard contact to opposing hitters. He has made just two starts this season, and in his most recent outing against the Rays, he gave up three runs on five hits across only 2.1 innings pitched. Last year at home, he posted a 5.15 ERA and a .291 opponent batting average.
Langford owns an elite rating in this matchup. In 14 career elite-rated matchups, he has hit a home run 28.57% of the time. It is a small sample size, but worth noting. He also profiles extremely well against Rogers’ full arsenal. Rogers throws his fastball nearly 45% of the time, and Langford is the best fastball hitter on the Rangers, according to Baseball Savant.
Want to read more about why I love Wyatt Langford today? Click this link.
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