We are heading into tonight’s slate with one clear focus: the long ball. The matchups and pricing on the board set up perfectly for a handful of hitters to do damage, and the numbers back it up.
I dug through Batters-Box ratings, recent trends, and pitcher splits to find the best opportunities, and four names stood out above the rest. Each carries a mix of value, matchup advantage, and that undeniable “due factor” that every bettor loves to chase. From Riley Greene to Shohei Ohtani, here are the best swings to back for home runs this evening.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
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Last Month: 60-82 (+7.95u)
Last Week: 7-13 (-2.43u)
Home Run Best Bets – September 5
Can Shohei Ohtani get to 50 home runs again?
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Riley Greene (+500)
As I wrote in an earlier piece, I love Riley Greene tonight. I am all over his home run prop at +500. He holds an elite rating in both categories on Batters-Box. In the default ratings at home, Greene goes yard 25% of the time. So far this season, in 22 elite ratings at home, Greene has homered almost 32% of the time.
White Sox starter Shane Smith has struggled badly against left-handed hitters in recent starts. The last 60 he has faced have posted a .276 xBA, a .566 xSLG, and a .320 xwOBA. They are also making 63% hard contact with a 9.3% barrel rate.
The price is scrumptious, and Greene has not left the yard since Tuesday, August 26. He is without a doubt #Due.
Romy Gonzalez (+500)
I love taking the former mustache man whenever he takes on a southpaw. The Red Sox first baseman has been crushing left-handed pitchers all season, owning a .330 BA, .386 OBP, .600 SLG, and .986 OPS. Not to mention six of his eight home runs this season have come off lefties.
Tonight he faces Eduardo Rodriguez, who has the fifth-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box’s current season ratings. He is allowing left-handed hitters to mash. So far this season against left-handed hitters, they are batting .349 with a .547 SLG and a .922 OPS. The Diamondbacks southpaw only has one pitch above league average, his cutter, which makes up just 18% of his arsenal. The Red Sox crush all of Rodriguez’s offerings. Against cutters Gonzalez does slightly struggle, owning a .685 OPS and 95 wRC+. I can live with that since it is only 18%. The remaining 82% is where he feasts.
Gonzalez is on a seven-game hitting streak, but it is a streak of singles. He has yet to have his “boom” game. His last extra-base hit came on August 6 against the Royals, where he recorded two doubles. His last home run came on August 2. Another guy that is #Due.
Kyle Schwarber (+190)
My home run leader. I need him to come through.
In 42 elite ratings this season, Schwarber has homered almost 31% of the time. That number holds steady no matter if he is at home or on the road. Marlins starter Valente Bellozo owns the worst pitcher rating on the day and throws several of Schwarber’s favorite pitches.
I am not one to read into odds the books put out, but when they overcompensate and move the number well below its norm, it gives me the idea that today is the day. Did I love Schwarber to leave the yard before seeing the odds? Of course. I always look at the odds last. Under two-to-one is not unusual for the Phillies slugger, but this past week it has been above +200. Now it has dropped below, which makes it a 100% go with him this evening.
The price is gross, and people love parlays. I highly suggest pairing him with someone else on this list. However, I always advise taking him straight. No need to mess with bases, doubles, or runs and RBI props. Just go with the long ball.
It has been since his iconic four-home-run game last Thursday.
Can I get a #Due?!
Shohei Ohtani (+185)
This is a backing based on trends. The NL MVP frontrunner owns the number one rating on Batters-Box today. He also has a rating above 0.60, which makes all of his props a go.
In 60 ratings above 0.60, Ohtani records at least:
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1+ Hit: 85%
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2+ Hits: 40%
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2+ Bases: 67%
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3+ Bases: 50%
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2+ HRR: 82%
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3+ HRR: 58%
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Home Run: 32%
This data covers the past three seasons.
Similar to Schwarber, his price is significantly lower than normal. Some books are listing this prop at +145. Again, parlay this if you find it disgusting. However, against Dean Kremer, this is a great spot for Shohei to feast.
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