Two spots stand out on Tuesday’s slate for home run value. William Contreras gets a dream matchup at Coors Field against a lefty he profiles well against, while Heliot Ramos continues to flash elite metrics in a potential regression spot for Nick Lodolo.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 38-51-2 (+7.79 Units)
Last week Betting MLB: 26-26 (+10.64u)
Reds vs Giants Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Heliot Ramos Home Run (+600) Odds via BetOnline
Can Heliot Ramos keep his hot streak alive?
Heliot Ramos simply has the sexiest elite rating trends on the board. The Giants’ young stud holds the seventh-highest hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box.com. When he carries an elite rating, Ramos records at least one hit 93% of the time, homers in 33.33% of games, and goes over 1.5 total bases 60% of the time. That elite sample size spans 15 games—not the largest, but certainly not the smallest.
He faces Nick Lodolo tonight, a pitcher he already saw earlier this season. In his career, Ramos is 1-for-5 with a double against Lodolo. That means absolutely nothing. What does matter is that Lodolo is coming off two strong outings, and some regression could be due.
The biggest concern is Lodolo’s ability to generate ground balls—his last two starts were dominant largely because hitters kept pounding the ball into the dirt. That said, Ramos is locked in right now. The 25-year-old is hitting .279 with an .854 OPS and has already launched three home runs this season. The price is simply too good to pass up on a bat this talented.
Brewers vs Rockies Home Run Bet
Best Bet: William Contreras Home Run (+440) odds via BetOnline
When will William Contreras turn it around?
Yes, I am fully aware of how rough William Contreras has looked to start the season, but what better place to turn it around than at Coors Field?
We are not going to talk about him batting .097 with a .360 OPS. We will not dwell on the negatives. The positives are all we care about. Today, the Brewers catcher faces Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, who is giving up the third-most hard contact on the slate. Contreras owns a .315 career batting average and a .941 OPS against left-handed pitching.
He also holds the fourth-highest average hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box.com today. When elite, he records at least one hit 66.67% of the time, hits a home run 12.28% of the time, and clears 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in 52.63% of those spots. With temperatures in Denver finally in the low 60s instead of the freezing 30s and 40s, this is a great setup for someone to leave the yard at Coors. Hopefully, that someone is a guy who desperately needs to flip the script on his season.
I love the price on Contreras today. I found a boost and threw it on him. +440 for a hitter who crushes lefties, at altitude, in improved weather? That is worth the sprinkle.
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