Home Run Best Bets: Finding value in home run props often comes down to trends, matchups, and the right odds. Two hitters stand out today—William Contreras and Matt Wallner—both off to slow starts but primed for a breakout. With strong historical numbers and favorable situations, they are well worth a shot to go deep.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 20-32 (+1.34 Units)
Wednesday’s Card: 3-4 (+0.9 Units)
Astros vs Twins Home Run Bet
Can Matt Wallner turn it around against the Astros tonight?
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Minnesota Twins leadoff hitter Matt Wallner offers strong value on both his hit and home run props today. The Twins outfielder has not started the season hot, batting just .118 with only two hits so far. Still, I am a big fan of his and believe he will turn it around—especially with the added opportunities that come from hitting leadoff.
What stands out are his trends. With a Great rating on Batters-Box.com, Wallner records a hit 64% of the time and homers 35.71% of the time across a 14-game sample. Not the biggest sample, not the smallest. At greater than 5/1 odds, taking a chance on the leadoff hitter feels well worth it.
Best Bet: Matt Wallner Home Run (+520) BetOnline
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Bet
Can William Contreras get back on track with a home run against Nick Lodolo tonight?
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Another player in a slump: Brewers catcher William Contreras. Another player I expect to break out and go deep. He has fantastic numbers against left-handed pitchers, boasting a career .318 batting average and a .947 OPS. When carrying an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Contreras records at least one hit 67% of the time across a 56-game sample. He also homers 12.5% of the time.
Despite hitting just .100 through the first week of the season, he remains one of the league’s better hitters. He is due for a breakout—hopefully, tonight against the Reds.
Best Bet: William Contreras Home Run (+550) BetOnline
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