MLB Best Home Run Bets: Two young hitters are set up for home run success today with favorable matchups and strong elite ratings. Kerry Carpenter and Jordan Westburg both have the potential to power one out of the park, offering great value on their home run props. Let us take a closer look at why these two are worth backing to leave the yard.
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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today, April 29th
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Month: 93-132-4 (+8.59u)
Last week: 19-32-2 (-2.0u)
Yankees vs Orioles Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Jordan Westburg Home Run (+680) odds via BetOnline
Will Jordan Westburg’s hamstring be good to go this evening?
The second-highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com is Orioles second baseman Jordan Westburg, who has not recorded a home run since April 19th. Since then, he has recorded three extra-base hits and has collected at least one hit in five of his last six games. When carrying an elite rating at home, the Orioles infielder hits a home run 27% of the time. That comes from an 11-game sample size — small, but worth noting. Overall, in 30 elite ratings, he records a home run 13% of the time. Not the most attractive trend, but today he faces Yankees struggling right-hander Will Warren.
The 25-year-old starter has the fifth-worst pitcher rating on the day. He has a poorly rated average hitter matchup in wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rate. Warren is giving up nearly 46% hard contact — the highest among today’s starters. The Yankees starter also sports a 4.79 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.
If Westburg can square up a mistake pitch, it should leave the yard. At nearly 7/1 for a home run, we are getting a fantastic price on a hitter who has produced excellent numbers this season and matches up well against Warren’s arsenal.
Tigers vs Astros Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+360) odds via BetOnline
Will we see an explosive evening from Tigers stud, Kerry Carpenter?
It has been since April 14th since the Tigers young stud, Kerry Carpenter, has recorded a home run. The outfielder is batting a cool .271 with five home runs and a .782 OPS. He is currently dealing with a four-game hitless streak. I thought that drought would snap on Sunday, but here we are backing him to leave the yard again — and I think the matchup is even better.
Today, he faces struggling right-hander Ronel Blanco, who sports a 5.01 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Half of Blanco’s pitches grade above league average. The 31-year-old leans heavily on his fastball, throwing it 40% of the time. Carpenter has been putting up solid numbers this season against fastballs and has produced strong results throughout his young career. He also owns great numbers against the rest of Blanco’s arsenal.
Carpenter enters today with the second-highest rating in this Tigers versus Astros matchup. In 39 elite ratings, he hits a home run 20% of the time. In his last ten elite ratings, he has recorded a home run in two of them.
Given the price and the opportunities he should have as the Tigers’ leadoff hitter, I think Carpenter gets back on track this evening against Blanco.
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