The board offers a few prime opportunities to back power hitters in favorable matchups. With elite ratings, strong splits, and vulnerable arms on the mound, several sluggers are positioned to do damage. These are my favorite home run bets for today’s slate.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, April 14th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 55-76-2 (+8.03u)
Last week Betting MLB: 20-27-2 (+1.7u)
Royals vs Yankees Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+470) odds via BetOnline
Will Bobby Witt Jr. record his second home run of the season tonight in the Bronx?
Royals stud Bobby Witt Jr. has the luxury of facing your uncle’s childhood best friend, Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees’ 38-year-old right-hander enters with a 7.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.
The long-time veteran holds the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate, along with the worst average hitter matchup wOBA and the second-worst average hitter matchup ISO. Two of his five pitches are below league average, according to FanGraphs. The others are barely above, none reaching a whole number.
Witt has been seeing the ball extremely well to start the season, batting .309 with an .873 OPS, though he has only one home run so far. Entering today’s slate, Witt holds an elite rating, per Batters-Box.com. His elite-rated trends are mouthwatering: in 26 elite matchups, he has recorded a hit 80% of the time, gone over 1.5 bases 57% of the time, and homered in nearly 27% of them. You can take his total bases prop at -120, or sprinkle on his double and home run props for more value.
At nearly 5/1 odds for Witt to record his second home run of the season, I think the value is excellent—especially when your stepdad (Cookie Carrasco) is out there throwing meatballs.
Mets vs Twins Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Home Run (+375) odds via BetOnline
Can Pete Alonso bounce back after an 0-4 Sunday?
Mets stud Pete Alonso enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. He faces Twins starter Joe Ryan, who throws fastballs 62% of the time. So far this season, Alonso is hitting .600 with a 1.600 OPS and a 508 wRC+ against fastballs, across a 67-pitch sample.
Beyond that, the Mets’ first baseman has been seeing the ball better than anyone on the team, batting .347 with a 1.164 OPS and already launching four home runs. He is coming off an 0-for-4 day against the Athletics on Sunday and should bounce back today.
His elite rating trends are magnificent: he records a hit 63% of the time, goes over 1.5 HRR 55% of the time, and hits a home run 25% of the time. That is based on a 74-game elite rating sample. At +375, this is a great price to back one of the more powerful bats in baseball.
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