Digging into today’s slate and locking in two of my favorite home run bets. Both guys come in with elite matchup ratings, strong underlying trends, and juicy power numbers. Let’s ride with two cleanup bats who can absolutely leave the yard.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, April 11th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 49-63-2 (+9.45 Units)
Last week Betting MLB: 26-26-2 (+7.84u)
Royals vs Guardians Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Manzardo Home Run (+750) odds via BetOnline
Can the Guardians’ young stud stay hot in April?
The top-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com, Guardians young stud Kyle Manzardo, has been electric out of the cleanup spot. He’s batting just .225, but rocking a .927 OPS with four bombs already. I don’t care that he had a “successful” day yesterday going 1-for-4 with a homer and two RBI. The price is well worth the squeeze.
The Guardians’ first baseman is raking against lefties—5-for-8 vs LHP this season, and all of them have gone for extra bases: three home runs, a double, and a triple.
Today he gets Kris Bubic, who owns one of the worst average hitter matchup wOBAs and ISOs on the slate. He’s giving up over 32% hard contact and has a brutal strikeout percentage in these matchups.
For the price, it’s absolutely worth a sprinkle to back a cleanup guy who might just kiss one into the bleachers. Yes, I took his alt total bases over 1.5 priced at +200.
Mets vs Athletics Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Brent Rooker Home Run (+375) odds via BetOnline
Will we ever see July 2024 Brent Rooker ever again?
First time backing Brent Rooker to leave the yard this season—and I love the spot.
The A’s star enters today with the ninth-best matchup rating on the slate and some elite trends to back it up: when rated elite, he’s recorded a hit 75% of the time, gone over 1.5 total bases 56% of the time, and homered in 24% of those games. He’s got a hit in three of his last five and just snapped a brief two-game drought on Wednesday.
He gets Mets starter Griffin Canning today, who gives up a ton of hard contact and already rates poorly across Rooker’s average pitch profile.
At nearly 4/1 for the A’s best bat to go yard in Sacramento? I’m all over it.
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