We have our eyes on two prime home run spots this afternoon, each backed by strong data and favorable matchups. One is a rising star in Boston making early noise in 2025, the other is the best hitter on the planet stepping into a dream scenario. Both bring value at plus-money and are well worth a light sprinkle.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best Home Run Bets Today, April 9th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 42-57-2 (+8.93 Units)
Last week Betting MLB: 25-29-2 (+8.53u)
Dodgers vs Nationals Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+240) Odds via BetOnline
Will Shohei secure his second home run of the week?
We are backing the best hitter in baseball to leave the yard for the second time this week. Shohei Ohtani holds the highest rating on Batters-Box.com today. When he carries an elite rating, he records a home run 33.33% of the time. That is across a 150-game sample and stands as the highest home run trend percentage in the league.
The Dodgers star faces Nationals starter Jake Irvin, who allows a ton of hard contact—second highest among all starters today. On top of that, he has a poor average hitter matchup ISO. Through just two starts this season, Irvin has already allowed three home runs.
With how well Ohtani has been seeing the ball and how high his rating is today, it is hard to pass on him this afternoon. Anything above +220 is typically a must play in my book. There is plenty of value in the +240. Give it a sprinkle and enjoy the ride.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Kristian Campbell Home Run (+800) odds via BetOnline
Can the Red Sox young stud take one out of the park today?
The Red Sox young star in the making has the seventh-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box.com today. He has been seeing the ball extremely well to start his 2025 campaign, batting .351 with two home runs and a 1.078 OPS. His home run prop is set as high as 8/1 on most books today. That is a must sprinkle in my book. I will not be on any of his other props, but tossing a little quarter unit on this kid to go yard today feels worth the fun.
He faces Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, who has allowed at least one home run in back-to-back starts to begin 2025. The Toronto right-hander gives up a lot of hard contact—37.16% according to Batters-Box.com. On top of that, he carries a poor average hitter matchup ISO.
Given the odds and the amount of hard contact Gausman allows, this is well worth the sprinkle in my book.
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