MLB Best Home Run Bets: Two elite bats. Two tasty matchups. Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso both get dream scenarios today against pitchers they absolutely mash.
Let’ get into these best bets.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, May 5th
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Last Month: 101-144-4 (+9.31u)
Last Week: 28-42 (+2.86u)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Home Run (+310) odds via BetOnline
Can Pete Alonso keep up his hot streak?
Pete Alonso is one of two elite-rated Mets hitters in this matchup — the other being Juan Soto. I did dabble in Soto’s home run prop as well, but Alonso’s numbers line up much better. When carrying an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Alonso leaves the yard nearly 27 percent of the time. That is across a 78-game elite rating sample. On the road, those trends hold steady with a 25 percent homer rate in 24 elite-rated games.
The Mets slugger draws a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson, a pitcher who leans heavily on his fastball — throwing it nearly 60 percent of the time. This season, Alonso is batting .382 against heaters with a 1.100 OPS and a 217 wRC+. He is not just punishing fastballs, though. Nelson’s cutter — his best pitch — is also getting torched. Alonso owns a .333 average, 1.253 OPS, and 220 wRC+ against cutters.
Given the price and how well Alonso matches up against Nelson, it is hard not to sprinkle his home run prop.
Mariners vs Athletics Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Cal Raleigh Home Run (+265) odds via BetOnline
Can Cal Raleigh make some magic against Luis Severino?
The Big Dumper, as the people call him, enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. In 59 games with that elite tag, Cal Raleigh has gone yard 25 percent of the time. His road trends are even juicier — in 19 elite-rated road games, he has homered at a 36 percent clip.
Today, the Seattle catcher faces Luis Severino, a pitcher who routinely struggles against elite bats. According to Batters-Box.com, hitters with elite ratings are logging a hit off Severino more than 70 percent of the time. The veteran right-hander has just one pitch with a positive pitch value on FanGraphs — his sinker.
Fortunately for us, Raleigh feasts on sinkers. This season, he is batting over .400 against them, with a 1.267 OPS and a ridiculous 403 wRC+ on a 63-pitch sample. For his career, he owns a .322 average, 1.067 OPS, and 204 wRC+ versus the pitch.
With how well Raleigh matches up against Severino, it is tough not to sprinkle on his home run prop.
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