MLB Best Bets Today | April 4, 2025

Friday MLB Best Bets: Two offenses stand out with clear advantages on today’s slate. Both Arizona and Atlanta are in position to break out early against struggling pitchers who rank near the bottom in key metrics. These matchups offer strong value for first five inning plays and could mark a turning point for two talented lineups.

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Last Month Betting MLB: 23-37 (+1.62 Units)

Thursday’s Card: 3-5 (+0.3 Units)

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Best Bet

Can Arizona keep their hot bats alive in the first five against the Nationals?

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One of the better offenses in the league has the luxury of facing the second worst pitcher on the slate, according to Batters-Box.com’s pitcher ratings. Jake Irvin takes the mound today for the Nationals, and he allows the most hard contact among all starting pitchers. The 28-year-old right-hander also holds the second lowest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage.

Irvin is coming off an incredible Opening Day start against the Phillies, but some regression is likely on the horizon.

Arizona enters the day with the third highest average hitter matchup rating. The lineup features three elite hitters, six hitters above the league strikeout rate, and two above the league ground ball rate. So far this season, the Diamondbacks have thrived early, averaging 2.71 runs in the first five innings. Now, facing a pitcher who consistently gives up hard contact, they should have every opportunity to strike early and often in the nation’s capital.

Best Bet: Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110) at BetOnline

Marlins vs Braves Best Bet

Will tonight be the night (that I fall for you?) the Braves turn it around?

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The Atlanta Braves are off to one of the most disappointing starts in the league, still winless through their first seven games. However, today presents a prime opportunity to turn things around back at home against the Miami Marlins, whose starter holds the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. Max Meyer not only ranks last in that metric, but he also allows the third most hard contact among today’s starters. He has the highest average hitter matchup wOBA and ISO on the slate as well.

Meyer will face an Atlanta lineup loaded with talent—six hitters are rated as elite, four are above the league strikeout rate, and eight above the league ground ball rate. There is some concern with the number of hitter above the ground ball rate, but given how highly rated the Braves’ offense is overall, I am willing to overlook it. Atlanta’s average hitter matchup rating is graded as elite on Batters-Box.com.

The Braves has averaged just 1.86 runs in the first five innings to begin the season, a noticeable drop from the 2.5 they averaged in the same span last year. That trend is unlikely to last. An explosive performance feels inevitable, and today looks like the ideal spot to back them.