Monday’s MLB Best Bets: We are attacking two of the weakest pitchers on today’s slate. The focus is on team total overs in the first five innings. With favorable matchups, these offenses should capitalize early.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Sunday’s Best Bet Write Up: 1-1 (-0.19 Units)
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Red Sox vs Orioles Best Bet
Can the Orioles’ hot bats stay hot against the Red Sox?
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The Baltimore Orioles enter Monday coming off a loss to the Blue Jays on Sunday but securing their first series win of the season. Now back home for their first home series of the year, they face Red Sox starter Sean Newcomb, who has not pitched since June 30, 2024. The 31-year-old left hander holds a career ERA of 4.51 and a WHIP of 1.47 and has the second-worst pitcher rating of the day.
The Orioles lineup features four elite-rated hitters, none rated poor, six above the league strikeout rate, and only one above the league ground ball rate. So far this season, Baltimore has averaged 4.25 runs per first five—a very small sample size. However, last season at home, they averaged just a hair under three runs.
Given Newcomb’s struggles and how well the Orioles lineup matches up against him, taking the Birds to go over their first-five team total in their first home game of the season looks like a strong play.
Best Bet: Orioles First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)
Rockies vs Phillies Best Bet
Will the Phillies bats finally come alive in the first five innings today?
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The highest-rated team on Monday’s slate, the Phillies, feature a lineup just a few hairs away from being elite. They have four elite-rated hitters, none rated poor, three above the league strikeout rate, and four above the league ground ball rate. They face Rockies starter German Marquez, who has appeared in just five games over the last two years. The 30-year-old right-hander holds a career ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.29. Among all pitchers starting today, Marquez allows the most hard contact.
The Phillies have started slow in the first five this season, averaging just 0.25 runs in that span despite scoring 6.3 runs per game. Now back home for their first home series of the season, they should come out firing early. In 2024, they ranked sixth in first-five scoring, averaging over 2.5 runs in that stretch.
With Marquez having been out for so long—appearing in just one game last season and not having a full season since 2022—the Phillies should do some damage early.
Best Bet: Phillies First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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