The MLB slate is loaded, and there are plenty of spots worth targeting. From elite offenses in favorable matchups to pitchers with exploitable trends, the data points to strong betting opportunities. Let’s dive into the best bets for today’s action.
Want more MLB content? Click this link.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always FREE.
2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Friday Best Bet Write Up: 0-2 (-1.0 Unit)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Phillies vs Nationals Best Bet
Will the Phillies bats come alive again against the Nationals?
BetOdds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
The Philadelphia Phillies boast one of the best offenses on today’s slate, ranking second in average hitter matchup rating behind only the Houston Astros, according to Batters-Box.com. Their lineup features three elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated hitters, two above the league strikeout rate, and two above the league ground ball rate.
Nationals starter Jake Irvin takes the mound today, and he gives up the third-most hard contact on the slate—nearly 40%, which is a massive number. Phillies hitters should be making solid contact all game. Irvin’s trends are even more concerning—when he has a poor matchup rating, he allows over 4.5 hits 66.67% of the time and over 1.5 runs 83.33% of the time.
Last season, the Phillies ranked sixth in first five runs, averaging 2.68 per first five innings. After a slow start against the Nationals on Thursday before exploding late, the hope is that the day off and those hot bats carry over into Saturday afternoon.
Best Bet: Phillies First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
Giants vs Reds Best Bet
Will the Giants offenses stay hot today against the Reds?
BetOdds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
The Giants enter today with two elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated hitters, seven above the league strikeout rate, and only two above the league ground ball rate. Despite having just an above-average hitter matchup rating, they still feature two elite-rated hitters with strong trends and two more with great ratings.
The Giants face Reds starter Nick Lodolo, who posted a 4.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP last season. Surprisingly, he struggled at home, recording a 6.09 ERA in 11 starts and allowing an average of 3.45 runs per outing. If those home struggles continue, the Giants should have a strong first five innings.
In 2024, San Francisco averaged 2.28 runs in the first five innings. This was a gritty team last season—not incredible, but fun to watch. With their young core having another offseason to develop, they should be exciting again in 2025. I think 1.5 is too low for their team total. I expected the prop to be at 2.5 with plus money, but I really like it at 1.5.
Sprinkle: Heliot Ramos HR (+500) + Tyler Fitzgerald (+650) – Take both straight 0.25 units
Best Bet: Giants First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-135)
Interested in More Content
Follow me on X @C_marchio2 for all of my picks and sports opinions!
Be sure to check out all things Betting News on X and Twitch!
While you are at it go get some merch at our Betting News Store!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
