MLB AL MVP Award: Picks & Predictions | June 23, 2025

Aaron Judge upset after striking out - AL MVP picks

AL MVP: The AL MVP race feels like a wrap with Aaron Judge sitting at -1800, but do not count it over just yet. If you believe regression or injury could derail his second half, there are long-shot values still in play. One name stands out if you are looking to take a calculated swing.

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Updated AL MVP Award Odds

Is Cal Raleigh worth taking to win AL MVP?

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- Aaron Judge -1800
- Cal Raleigh +500
- Bobby Witt Jr. +8000
- Jose Ramirez +10000
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +12500
- Tarik Skubal +12500

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AL MVP Award Picks

When you look up at the odds and see Yankees captain Aaron Judge listed at -1800, you might think this award is already locked up. For the most part, it is. However, if you believe Judge is due for some serious regression in the second half, or are banking on an injury that forces him to miss time, there is still some value left on the board.

I was going to come on here and say to bet Cal Raleigh. On Friday, he was still 20/1 on some books to win the award. Now at 5/1, the price is simply not worth it anymore. The Mariners catcher is having a monster first half—31 home runs, the most by a catcher before the All-Star Break in MLB history. He has been an absolute joy to watch.

On top of that, the 28-year-old is batting .276, with a 1.042 OPS and 66 RBI. Some would argue that if he does not keep that average above .270, voters may shy away from giving him the nod. However, with the price dropping all the way down to 5/1, it is time to stay away. It is just not worth it.

Where should I be looking for MVP value?

For the price and the value he brings to his team, I would lean toward Guardians star Jose Ramirez. At 100/1, for a guy batting .323 with 13 home runs, 36 RBI, and a .910 OPS, that is excellent value. I would be shocked if he does not finish the season with 30 home runs. Ramirez ranks sixth in baseball with 90 total hits—just 15 behind Judge, who leads the league. Yes, just 15.

Again, I would only advise taking any AL MVP future if you have the utmost confidence that Judge is due for a major second-half drop-off. Because unless that happens, it is going to be very difficult for him to lose this award.