Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Odds & Predictions | April 7, 2025

Valente Bellozo getting the start changes everything for this matchup. The Mets now face the slate’s weakest pitcher with a loaded, elite-rated lineup. This is a spot too good to ignore.

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Marlins vs Mets Odds

Can the Mets go off on the Marlins tonight?

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Runline

Marlins: +1.5 (+109)

Mets: -1.5 (-129)

Total

Over: 7 (-125)

Under: 7 (+105)

Moneyline

Marlins: +234

Mets: -263

Marlins vs Mets Best Bet

This play would have made the best bets write-up if I had known Valente Bellozo was starting for the Marlins. Why does that matter? It is all that matters.

The Marlins’ 25-year-old right-hander holds the worst pitcher rating on the slate. He allows the second-highest hard contact rate, the highest average hitter matchup ISO, and the lowest ground ball rate among starters. When tagged with a poor rating, Bellozo has allowed a home run 77.78% of the time, 6+ hits 77.78% of the time, and 2+ walks 55.56% of the time—across a nine-game sample. On top of that, he led all starters last season in meatball rate at 13.9 per 100. Meatballs meaning home run-friendly pitches.

The Mets bring three elite-rated hitters into this matchup, with zero poor-rated bats. They also have no hitters above the league strikeout or ground ball rate. Batters-Box.com gives them the highest-rated lineup on the slate, and in my opinion, that profile is delicious. New York has averaged two runs per first five innings this season. A year ago, they averaged 2.68—and that was before adding Juan Soto to the mix. I love the price and the matchup here.

Sko Mets.