Mets vs. Phillies: The MLB slate is loaded with action, but one game stands out well above the rest. The Mets and Phillies square off in a matchup that feels like it has the potential to set the tone for the evening. Philadelphia returns home after a stretch of inconsistent road performances, while New York enters swinging some of the hottest bats in baseball. There are few pitchers in the league under more pressure right now than Aaron Nola, who has not only struggled this season but has been downright unreliable at home.
On the other side, the Mets lineup has been stacking elite numbers across every major offensive category, especially when you look at advanced metrics over the past month. Add in a lineup full of left handed power against a right hander that has been crushed by lefties, and you have all the makings of a spot worth attacking.
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Mets vs. Phillies Best Bets – September 8
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Easily the most intriguing game on the slate is Mets vs. Phillies. I have been dogging the Phillies for weeks over their inability to score runs on the road. Now they are back at home, and this matchup feels primed for fireworks. Shockingly enough, I am all over the Mets in this one. I want to fade Aaron Nola in every way possible and back a Mets offense that has been heating up.
With that, we will be targeting the Mets first five team total over 2.5 at +114. A beautiful number. Let us break it down.
Mets Trends
New York enters today with the highest rated offense on Batters-Box, featuring eight elite rated hitters. Over the last four weeks on the road, the Mets rank second in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO. They are also third in walk rate and seventh in hard hit rate. This season they are the sixth best first five scoring team overall, though they have averaged only 2.42 runs on the road. I am not concerned about that this evening.
The Phillies send veteran right hander Aaron Nola to the mound, and he has been a disaster. He carries the worst rating of the day on Batters-Box, giving up more than 40 percent hard contact to opposing hitters. At home he has been brutal, with a 6.55 ERA while allowing nearly seven hits and 4.3 runs per start. Opponents are batting .304 against him in Philadelphia. Over his last five home starts, Nola owns a 7.00 ERA, 4.45 xERA, and has allowed 46 percent hard contact with an 8.45 percent barrel rate. During that span, hitters have posted a .279 xBA, .434 xSLG, and .342 xwOBA.
Nola vs. Lefties
All eight elite rated Mets hitters will bat from the left side tonight, which sets them up perfectly for success. Nola has been rocked by left handed hitters this season, with the last 60 he has faced producing a .394 xBA, .655 xSLG, and .386 xwOBA.
This will be the second time the Mets see Nola this year. Back in April, they tagged him for four runs on seven hits. With the way this lineup is trending, they are more than due for another strong outing against the struggling starter.
The Mets offense could not ask for a better setup than tonight. They come in with elite metrics across the board, a lineup stacked with dangerous left handed bats, and face a starter who has been nothing short of dreadful at home. Nola’s struggles against lefties and his inability to limit hard contact line up perfectly with what the Mets do best. Add in the fact that New York has already had success against him earlier this season, and this number at +114 feels like a gift. This is a strong offensive spot to back the Mets early.
GO METS!!
Best Bet: Mets First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+114) odds via BetOnline
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