Mets vs. Nationals: First Five Props | August 21, 2025

Mets vs. Nationals: Baseball is a game of trends, matchups, and timing, and the Mets offense has been firing on all cylinders. Over the past few weeks, they have dominated in nearly every key metric, making them one of the most dangerous lineups in the league.

Tonight they face a pitcher who has struggled mightily at home, providing a perfect opportunity to capitalize. Props like first-five runs become almost automatic plays when the numbers and talent align this clearly. For anyone looking for an edge, this is the perfect scenario.

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Mets vs. Nationals Best Bets – August 21

Can Pete Alonso drive in some early runs this evening?

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Two. Two runs. For one of the hottest and most lethal offenses in baseball to score in the first five innings. Two. Again, a number I will happily take every single time. Regardless if this cashes or not, this is sports betting—nothing is ever a guarantee. This will always be a go-to play for me.

I will repeat what I have said before about 1.5 runs in the first five innings because it deserves emphasis:

“If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average over two runs in the first five innings to begin with, and you are getting a prop on an offense you trust against a pitcher who is probably not good enough to deserve that amount of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me

Today I am baffled that the Mets are set and priced this way. Over the last two weeks they rank first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO, while also ranking third in hard hit rate and fourth in barrel rate. Even if you stretch the sample to three weeks, the results are nearly identical.

Mets vs. Gore

The Mets take on MacKenzie Gore, who has been dreadful at home. In his last five home starts, Gore carries an 8.74 ERA, 7.27 xERA, and 5.54 xFIP, while allowing a 52% hard hit rate and an 11.9% barrel rate. Opposing hitters in that span have a .345 xBA, .573 xSLG, and .424 xwOBA.

Across 11 total home starts, Gore owns a 4.62 ERA, giving up 5 hits and 2.8 runs per start. Meanwhile, the Mets have averaged more than two runs in the first five innings on the road this season. Washington, on the other hand, is surrendering 3.03 runs per game at home in that same span.

This will be Gore’s second meeting with the Mets this season. Back on June 10th, he went six innings and allowed five hits and two runs. We just need New York to replicate that effort tonight.

The numbers line up. The offense is locked in. This is my must-play bet of the day. The Mets have been relentless at the plate over the last few weeks, showing the kind of consistent power and discipline that can punish a struggling pitcher like Gore. Confidence is high in this lineup, and the trends strongly suggest they will get off to a fast start.

Best Bet: Mets First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-135) odds via BetOnline

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