Mets vs. Nationals: The New York Mets are rolling into the nation’s capital with momentum on their side. After series wins over both the Braves and Mariners, they now turn their attention to a struggling Nationals team.
Washington has been leaking runs at home all season, while New York’s offense has been surging over the last two weeks. With a favorable matchup on the mound, this sets up as a prime spot for the Mets to keep piling on.
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Last Month: 76-105 (+14.04u)
Last Week: 21-25 (+5.12u)
Mets vs. Nationals Best Bets – August 19
Will Juan Soto show up in our nation’s capital tonight?
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We head out East to Washington D.C., where the Nationals host the Mets in a three-game set. New York enters riding momentum after back-to-back series wins over the Braves and Mariners. Meanwhile, the Nationals, well, they are simply playing baseball.
The Mets look to stay hungry and keep stacking wins as the season winds down, and I fully expect them to strike early and often against Washington’s struggling starter. That is why we are paying some juice and taking the Mets to go over 2.5 runs in the first five innings at -130.
The Nationals allow the fourth most runs at home, giving up over three per first five innings. The Mets have struggled at times to score early on the road, averaging 2.22 runs, but recent play suggests momentum is shifting. Over the last two weeks, New York ranks fourth in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS, while sitting third in ISO.
According to Batters-Box, the Mets own the highest rated offense in the current season ratings. Their lineup features seven elite rated hitters, none above the league strikeout rate and four above the league ground ball rate.
Mets vs. Irvin
That highly rated offense draws the second worst rated pitcher on the day, Jake Irvin. The right-hander owns a 4.70 ERA at home, allowing 5.45 hits and 2.9 runs per start. Left-handed bats have punished him all season, slashing .278/.526/.869. Seven of the Mets top eight rated hitters will bat from the left side tonight, but Irvin’s issues stretch across the board.
In his last five games against left-handed hitters, Irvin has a 10.50 ERA, 7.24 xERA, and 5.11 xFIP. During that stretch, lefties have produced a .325 xBA, .580 xSLG, and .423 xwOBA, with a 58% hard hit rate, 2.17 WHIP, and 3.00 HR/9. His last five home starts, he still owns a 6.93 ERA, 4.88 xERA, and 4.63 xFIP. Opposing hitters have a .280 xBA, .458 xSLG, and .357 xwOBA in those outings.
This feels like the right spot to back a Mets offense that has been locked in over the last two weeks. Paying $1.30 juice for three runs is a price worth taking. Ideally, this one cashes quickly.
Best Bet: Mets First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-130) odds via BetOnline
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