Mets vs. Mariners: Both teams just dropped two of three in their last series and with each in the thick of the postseason race, a strong start to this three-game set at Citi Field is critical. Let’s break down which squad I think bounces back tonight with my best bet.
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Mets vs. Mariners Best Bet – August 15
Will Francisco Lindor be be able to produce against right-hander Luis Castillo?
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The Mets are slight home favorites here, and it’s easy to see why.
Southpaw Sean Manaea takes the bump for New York, and while giving up nine runs over his last two starts doesn’t inspire much confidence, the numbers under the hood tell a different story.
In six games (five starts), he’s got a 4.33 ERA, but the underlying numbers suggest he’s been and should continue to be better than that. His expected ERA is actually 3.40, and his xFIP (expected fielding independent of pitching) resides at 3.56.
Manaea has also been solid at piling up strikeouts while keeping walks in check, posting a 21.1% strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to the league average of 13.5%.
His last two starts don’t paint the full picture of the pitcher he can be, and I think we see his true form tonight against a Mariners lineup that’s cooled off against lefties since early July, ranking 19th in wRC+ (98) in that stretch.
Mets vs. Castillo
On the other side, we’ve got a pitcher whose numbers suggest this is a prime spot to fade him.
While Luis Castillo’s surface numbers aren’t overly concerning, there are red flags in certain areas. His ERA sits at an impressive 3.19, but his xERA is 4.11 and his xFIP is 4.12. Opponents are also making a ton of hard contact against him, with a 46% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate – hefty damage for a pitcher carrying such a low ERA. The biggest concern is his home/road splits: at home, he owns a 2.41 ERA and .266 wOBA, but on the road those numbers jump to 4.31 and .338.
This hints at regression and it could very well come against a Mets offense that ranks 9th in wRC+ (110) vs. righties since July 1. I’m banking on that happening and targeting the affordable moneyline price on the better offense against an overvalued pitcher.
Best Bet: Mets Moneyline (-117) odds via BetOnline
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