Mets vs Diamondbacks: Odds & Predictions | April 5, 2025

Mets vs Diamondbacks: After a doubleheader on Sunday, the Mets travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Ryne Nelson takes the mound for Arizona, bringing the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com into this matchup. New York counters with one of the day’s highest-rated lineups, headlined by elite hitters like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.

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Last Month: 101-144-4 (+9.31u)

Last Week: 28-42 (+2.86u)

Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds

Can the polar bear show up in the desert tonight?

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Runline

Mets: +1.5 (-195)

Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+170)

Total

Over: 9.5 (-107)

Under: 9.5 (-113)

Moneyline

Mets: +108

Diamondbacks: -119

Mets vs Diamondbacks Best Bet

Forget a side, forget a total — we are heading to the player props market and taking a hitter with the third-best batting average in the majors. Mr. Pete Alonso to go over 1.5 total bases today, taking on Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson.

Alonso is one of two elite-rated Mets hitters in this matchup, the other being Juan Soto. I did dabble in Soto’s bases prop as well, but Alonso’s numbers line up much better. When holding an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Alonso records a hit 65 percent of the time, goes over this prop in 50 percent of those games, and leaves the yard nearly 27 percent of the time. That is a 78 elite rating sample size. On the road, those trends are nearly identical — a 66 percent hit rate, 50 percent over on total bases, and 25 percent home run rate. Just a 24 road elite rating sample size.

The longtime Met draws a favorable matchup against a pitcher who leans heavily on his fastball. Ryne Nelson throws his fastball nearly 60 percent of the time. This season, Alonso is batting .382 against the fastball with a 1.100 OPS and a 217 wRC+. He is not only crushing fastballs, but he is also hitting Nelson’s cutter — his best pitch — even better. Alonso is batting .333 with a 1.253 OPS and a 220 wRC+ against cutters.

For the price and the matchup, Alonso’s total bases prop is the best look on the board. Yes, I mentioned being on Juan Soto’s bases prop as well, but Alonso matches up much better and has been seeing the ball extremely well through the first month and a half of the season.

Best Bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline

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