Mets vs. Braves: Baseball betting is often about spotting the market’s mistakes, and every so often a number pops up that feels too good to pass on. When it comes to tonight’s Mets matchup, that mistake is sitting right in front of us. The line is not only off, it is begging to be attacked.
The stage is set perfectly. The Mets are coming off a frustrating series loss, their lineup needs a jolt, and all eyes will be on their leader to provide it. He has been here countless times before, stepping up in big spots when his team needs it most. Add in the fact that he is long overdue for a breakout performance, and the anticipation grows even stronger.
Now throw in a matchup against a pitcher who offers exactly the kind of arsenal this slugger thrives on, and suddenly the board lights up with opportunity. The books have left the door open, and we are more than ready to walk through it.
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Last Month: 74-104 (+11.2u)
Last Week: 20-25 (+5.07)
Mets vs. Braves Best Bets – August 22
Can Pete Alonso drive in some early runs this evening?
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I believe I say and write this every single time I am on this prop, but I will continue to do so when it is set at this price. Pricing Pete Alonso to go over 1.5 bases at +135 is wrong. Just as I say 1.5 runs in the first five is a gift, this is as well.
Alonso is one of the most consistent hitters in all of baseball. He is on pace to finish with over 30 home runs for the fifth straight season, a batting average above .250 for the first time since 2022, and more than 100 RBI for the fourth time in his seven-year career.
The Mets are coming off a tough series loss to the Nationals, and Alonso went hitless yesterday, finishing 0-3 with a walk. This team needs its leader to step up against its rival tonight. Alonso is and always will be the captain of this team as long as he is here. He is the spark this offense feeds on, and tonight is a great spot for him to explode.
Alonso has not homered since August 12th, and he feels due. He ranks elite on both ratings at Batters-Box, and when elite on the road, the trends are strong. In 32 elite road ratings, Alonso records a hit 72% of the time, two hits 41% of the time, goes over this prop 60% of the time, and hits a home run 31% of the time. Going over 1.5 bases at 60% with +135 odds is significant value.
Alonso vs. Wentz
The Braves hand the ball to Joey Wentz, who Alonso already doubled off earlier this season. Wentz holds a poor Batters-Box rating, and while he improves to above average in the current season rating, that does not concern me. Right-handed bats are crushing him at home, hitting .306 with a .494 SLG and .373 wOBA.
Wentz leans on only three pitches, with 82% being fastballs and cutters. Alonso destroys those two pitches. This season, the Mets all-time home run leader owns a batting average north of .248, OPS of .875 or greater, and wRC+ of 149 or better against them. To add to that, both pitches grade just a hair above league average, with FanGraphs assigning each a rating under 0.50.
With all of that being said, this prop offers significant value on one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, facing a pitcher he has seen well and who relies heavily on two of his best pitches to hit. Regardless of whether the prop cashes or not, this is a must-play at this price. For extra fun, sprinkle on the home run as well. Alonso is more than due.
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) odds via BetOnline
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