Mariners vs. Tigers: Tigers second baseman Colt Keith is in a great spot today, and I have zero hesitation leaning on his bat. He checks every box I look for in a prop: matchup, form, and opportunity. Let me break down why I think Keith is worth the price.
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Last Month: 55-135 (-23.97u)
Last Week: 10-24 (-4.13u)
Thursday was abysmal. FULL FADE!
Mariners vs. Tigers Best Bets – July 12
How will Colt Keith and the Tigers close out the first half of the season?
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Heading to the D, where the Tigers second baseman’s hits, runs, RBI prop has my full attention. It is currently priced at $1.30. Normally, I would not pay that kind of juice, but for a leadoff hitter, I believe it is worth it. If you cannot find -130 for this prop, pivot to his bases at plus money. You will not have to pay any juice. I am simply taking the cushion here on Keith.
The 23-year-old carries an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season chart. This is his eighth elite rating this season. In the previous seven, he has recorded a hit 85% of the time, cleared this exact prop in 71%, and cashed his bases in 42%. Small sample size, but worth noting.
Over the past 15 days, the young Tiger has maintained a .386 average, .659 slugging, and 1.088 OPS. During that stretch, he has stacked up 17 hits, eight runs, six RBI, and seven extra-base hits. No matter which version of the prop you are on today, I believe it is a strong look.
Kirby vs. Keith
Keith faces George Kirby, a starter with poor matchup ratings in ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. Left-handed bats have teed off on Kirby all season, especially on the road, where they are batting .286 with a .536 SLG and a .373 wOBA.
According to FanGraphs, half of Kirby’s pitches are graded below league average, making up 38% of what he throws. His best pitch is his fastball, used 32% of the time. Keith has crushed fastballs this season, posting a 3.0 run value per 100 pitches, a .293 average, .924 OPS, and 166 wRC+. He also holds strong numbers against the rest of Kirby’s arsenal.
After a 0-for-5 Friday night, this feels like a strong bounce-back spot to back the Tigers second baseman.
Best Bet: Colt Keith Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-130) odds via BetOnline
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