Mariners vs. Tigers: Key Bets and Insights Today

Mariners vs. Tigers: The postseason has already delivered chaos, and Game 3 between the Tigers and Mariners might be next in line. With the series knotted at one apiece, both teams head into a pivotal matchup that could swing the momentum entirely. Detroit has fed off its home crowd all season, but Seattle’s offense has been scorching hot and shows no signs of cooling off. A veteran arm takes the mound, dangerous lefty bats wait in the box, and fireworks feel inevitable. Let us dive into why this one could unravel early in the Motor City.

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Mariners vs. Tigers Game 3 Best Bets – October 7

Can Julio Rodriguez spark this Mariners offense tonight in Game 3?

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Day baseball in the middle of the week is just sickening. Whatever, you are not here to listen to me complain about the scheduling, so let us dive into Game 3 of the ALDS, where the Tigers host the Mariners. With the series split 1-1, the question becomes: will the Mariners steal one on the road, or will the Tigers hold it down in the D? This has easily been one of the more entertaining matchups, as two of the four series going on have turned into complete blowouts.

I am leaning toward this one possibly getting out of hand early, which is why I am on the Mariners first five team total over 1.5 at -140. The Tigers send out veteran right-hander Jack Flaherty, coming off a strong Wild Card outing against the Guardians where he went 4.2 innings, allowing one run on three hits. He did his job last Thursday, but can he repeat that performance here? I do not see that happening…

Mariners vs. Flaherty

At home this season through 17 starts, the 29-year-old owns a 4.18 ERA, allowing 4.5 hits and 2.5 runs per start. In his last five home outings, his ERA balloons to 6.23 with a 1.42 WHIP. Over his most recent three starts, the numbers are even more telling: an 8.16 ERA, 4.43 xERA, and 4.66 xFIP. Opponents during that span have produced a .279 xBA, .395 xSLG, and .341 xwOBA.

The Mariners lineup today features four hitters with elite ratings and another with a great rating, per Batters-Box. Four of those five highly rated bats will swing from the left side. Left-handed hitters have absolutely tormented Flaherty. Against the last 30 he has faced, he owns a 5.40 ERA and 4.39 xERA while allowing 50% hard contact. Those hitters have posted a .369 xBA, .544 xSLG, and .340 xwOBA, while producing a 32% line-drive rate.

Over the last four weeks, Seattle has been one of, if not the, hottest teams in baseball. On the road during that span, they rank first in ISO, and second in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and hard-hit rate. Simply put, they are crushing opposing pitching.

If the Mariners keep swinging it like they have, this one could be over early. The Tigers have shown fight, but Seattle’s momentum and left-handed firepower might simply be too much for Flaherty to handle. I trust the Mariners to stay aggressive at the plate and set the tone before the bullpen even gets involved. Expect early fireworks in Detroit, and do not be surprised if Seattle takes control of this series by the fifth inning.

Bonus

I sprinkled a little on Seattle’s second baseman Jorge Polanco to go deep tonight at +600. He has already made a major impact in this series, and I expect that to continue this afternoon. Plus, he will bat from the left side and owns strong numbers against Flaherty’s pitch mix.

Best Bet: Mariners First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-140) odds via BetOnline

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