Guardians vs. Braves: Total Runs Bet | August 16, 2025

Guardians vs. Braves: After a low-scoring opener that produced just two runs, Cleveland and Atlanta square off again tonight. The question is – can these lineups wake up and produce runs? Let’s dive into my breakdown of this total for the Guardians and Braves.

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Guardians vs. Braves Best Bet – August 16

Can Ronald Acuna Jr. come alive at the plate tonight?

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The total for tonight’s game sits at 8.5, with slight juice on the over. Conditions should favor offense – it’ll be hot and humid in Cleveland, hovering around 86 degrees, which should help the ball carry.

Lefty Joey Wentz gets the nod for his sixth start of the season, and the numbers don’t inspire confidence. Across 31 appearances, he owns a 5.03 ERA with a 4.73 xFIP. Control has been an issue, walking over four batters per nine, and hitters are squaring him up with a 45% Hard-Hit rate.

While his five starts this year have only resulted in nine earned runs, the 4.21 xFIP in that stretch signals he’s been skating by. That’s a tough recipe against a Guardians lineup that’s been raking versus lefties, ranking fifth in both wRC+ (126) and ISO (.200) over the past month. Cleveland should be well-positioned to put pressure on him early and often.

Braves vs. Cecconi

Taking the mound for Cleveland is right-hander Slade Cecconi. His season has been serviceable on the surface, with a 4.11 ERA, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. A 5.47 xERA, 16% HR/FB rate, 13% Barrel rate, and 47.5% Hard-Hit rate suggest he’s been more vulnerable than the ERA implies, and Atlanta’s bats are more than capable of taking advantage.

The Braves have steadily been improving against right-handed pitching over the past month, posting a 104 wRC+ and a .320 wOBA.

I envision both offenses taking advantage of these shaky arms and pushing this game over the total.

Best Bet: Guardians / Braves Total over 8.5 (-116) odds via BetOnline

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