Dodgers vs Guardians: The Dodgers enter tonight with one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. They face a fastball-heavy starter with mediocre metrics. The matchup, park factors, and splits all point to value on Los Angeles’ total bases prop.
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Last Month: 99-157 (+11.22u)
Last Week: 23-30 (+6.23u)
Dodgers vs Guardians Odds
Can Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers will their way to a road win in Cleveland?
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Run Line
Dodgers: -1.5 (+107)
Guardians: +1.5 (-127)
Total
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-120)
Moneyline
Dodgers: -158
Guardians: +143
Dodgers vs Guardians Best Bet
We are backing one of the best lineups in baseball and fading a starter who leans heavily on his fastball.
Today, the Dodgers’ team total bases prop is set at 12.5, and I want to be a part of that over. As of today, Los Angeles ranks third in total bases per game, averaging 15.64. On the road, they are still producing 14.5 per outing. Cleveland ranks 19th in bases allowed, giving up 13.62 per game. At home, that number dips slightly to 12.82.
The Guardians will have Gavin Williams on the mound, who carries a poor rating on Batters-Box.com. He has a poor average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO and ground ball percentage. At home this season, he owns a 3.47 ERA and a .281 opponent batting average. He leans heavily on a below-average fastball, throwing it 51% of the time. According to FanGraphs, only one of his pitches is graded as a whole number, and he throws it just 5% of the time.
Today, their lineup is just shy of being graded as elite. Only Shohei Ohtani holds an elite rating, while Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy both have great ratings. Five hitters are striking out less than the league average, and only one has a ground ball rate above league average. That is what we want—no ground balls, strictly line drives.
Side note: I am also on Ohtani’s and Freeman’s bases and home run props tonight.
With the new renovations at Progressive Field and the wind tunnel effect in right field, I expect the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters to feast. This number feels too low, and if it is bait, I will bite. Give me the over at 12.5!
Best Bet: Dodgers Over 12.5 Total Bases (-125) odds via BetOnline
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