Dodgers vs. Giants: Ohtani Picks & Predictions | July 11, 2025

Dodgers vs. Giants: Shohei Ohtani steps into a perfect bounce-back spot tonight in San Francisco. The matchup, the metrics, the misprice—it all lines up. One of the most dangerous hitters in baseball is facing a vulnerable arm, and I am all over it.

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Thursday was abysmal. FULL FADE!

Dodgers vs. Giants Best Bets – July 11

After a hitless Wednesday night, will Shohei Ohtani bounce back in the Bay?

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One of the more mispriced props on the board today is Shohei Ohtani’s home run line, listed at 4/1 on some books. While I am giving out his total bases prop here—which is also a strong number—that home run price deserves a serious look. Yes, he is facing Giants ace Logan Webb, but I would argue Shohei is simply on another level. Let us get into it.

Ohtani is coming off a hitless night on Wednesday and is due for a bounce back against the longtime rival Giants. He has played very well on the road this season, posting a .276 average, .626 slugging percentage, and a 1.018 OPS. In today’s matchup, he owns the highest offensive rating on either side, according to Batters-Box.

When Ohtani carries an elite rating on the road, he has delivered:

76% hit rate
32% multi-hit rate
58% total bases hit rate
32% home run rate

That comes from a 78-game elite road rating sample size.

Ohtani vs. Webb

Webb has had a strong season, but he has not been sharp against left-handed hitters, who are batting .272 with a .408 SLG and .718 OPS against him. His most-used pitch is the sinker, but Ohtani has handled that well, batting .286 with a .923 OPS and 167 wRC+ against it. On top of that, 35% of Webb’s arsenal—including his slider and cutter—is graded below league average.

Webb throws his slider nearly 30% of the time, so let us focus on that. Ohtani is the No. 1-hitter on the Dodgers against the slider, owning a +12 run value, .377 average, .868 slugging, and a 60% hard-hit rate against the pitch.

This is simply a premium matchup for Ohtani. I believe this home run line is a massive misprice. Make sure to sprinkle there—the value is ridiculous. No matter who is on the mound, when is the last time you saw a 4/1 number next to Shohei Ohtani’s name?

Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) odds via BetOnline

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