Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: The Rockies continue to surrender runs at an alarming rate at home, making Denver a feast for opposing offenses. Tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks first five team total over 3.5 at even money looks like a perfect play. Their high-powered lineup faces a struggling Bradley Blalock, who has been torched in his last five home starts.
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Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Best Bets – August 14
Can Corbin Carroll spark this offense tonight in the Mile High City?
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Oh, you already know we are on the slithery little snakes tonight in Denver, where the Rockies are giving up all the runs in the world to opposing teams. The Arizona Diamondbacks first five team total over 3.5 at even money is a go this evening.
Some may think that because Arizona sold off a couple of key pieces, they are a shell of themselves. Wrong. This offense has not slowed down, still racking up over 2.5 runs per first five on the road. Sure, the prop calls for four runs, but the Rockies are allowing 4.62 runs in the first five at home this season. The snakes can keep pace with the parade of teams that have feasted in Denver.
Snakes vs. Blalock
The Diamondbacks lineup features four elite hitters, none rated poor or above the league strikeout rate, with five above the league ground ball rate. Today they face Rockies starter Bradley Blalock, who holds the worst rating on Batters-Box pitcher rankings. He carries poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage, while allowing 40% hard contact to opposing hitters all season.
In Blalock’s last five home starts, he has posted an ERA of 11.76, a 7.47 xERA, and a 6.18 xFIP. Opposing hitters in that span have a .334 xBA, a .547 xSLG, and a .428 xwOBA. This pitcher has been getting shelled at home, and that should continue tonight. The snakes roll into town with the fifth highest wRC+, sixth highest wOBA, and sixth highest OPS on the road over the last four weeks, along with the fifth highest walk percentage in that span.
The number may seem high, but it is not. Be thrilled we are getting even money on a prop that should be closer to -120.
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