Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Marte Prop Predictions | July 10, 2025

Ketel Marte - Arizona Diamondbacks - prop picks

Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Ketel Marte got back on track last night with a double, and I am going right back to the well with him today. This matchup is a full go across the board, with every key indicator pointing in his favor.

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Last Month: 59-138 (-21.21u)

Last Week: 8-23 (-5.87u)

I am colder than your father’s beer fridge. Full fade.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best Bets – July 10

Can Arizona put up some runs against Kevin Gausman tonight?

Will there be Marte magic in San Diego this evening?

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This is easily my favorite look on today’s slate: Ketel Marte to go over his bases prop, priced at even money. It feels like a steal. It feels too good to pass up, because everything about this matchup is a 100% go.

After going 1-for-4 with a double—following two straight games without a hit—Marte is set up for another strong outing against Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who holds the third-worst pitcher rating on the day, per Batters-Box. The 26-year-old right-hander also owns a poorly rated matchup across the board: wOBA, ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. That works in our favor—we want Marte elevating the baseball.

Vasquez has a very below-average pitch mix, with nearly 70% of his pitches graded below league average. His best offering is a sinker, which he throws 18% of the time. Marte owns a .259 average, .714 OPS, and 113 wRC+ against sinkers. While he holds a -2 run value on the pitch, he also carries a .319 expected batting average. He crushes the rest of Vasquez’s arsenal, so if those are his “worst” numbers against Vasquez’s “best,” I will take it.

Marte holds the highest rating in this matchup. In just 69 elite-rated matchups on Batters-Box, he has recorded:

72% 1+ Hit
36% 2+ Hits
50% 2+ Bases
63% 2+ HRR

With all of that said, we are backing a guy who loves hitting on the road. He owns a .328 average, .690 slugging percentage, and 1.112 OPS away from home. He will be facing a pitcher who has allowed left-handed hitters to bat nearly .300 against him over his career. Love the price. Love the matchup even more.

Best Bet: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) odds via BetOnline

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