Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in a prime spot to rack up strikeouts against a Tigers lineup that struggles with swing discipline. With Detroit having nine hitters above the league strikeout rate and Yamamoto boasting one of the best matchup strikeout percentages, the data points to value on his prop. At plus money, this is a spot worth taking advantage of.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Opening Day Best Bet Write Up: 2-0 (+1.16)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Tigers vs Dodgers Odds
Will Yamamoto have a successful outing back in the States?
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Runline
Tigers: +1.5 (-106)
Dodgers: -1.5 (-114)
Total
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-120)
Moneyline
Tigers: +192
Dodgers: -213
Tigers vs Dodgers Best Bet
Forget the sides, forget the total—we are rolling with a player prop. Mr. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to go over his strikeout prop tonight against the Detroit Tigers. The Dodgers starter has the second-highest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage, according to Batters-Box.com. The Tigers’ starting lineup features nine hitters above the league strikeout rate while holding the third-worst average hitter matchup rating on the day.
In Tokyo, Yamamoto finished with just four strikeouts, but the Cubs are a more disciplined team at the plate. In 2024, Chicago ranked 14th in strikeout rate, while Detroit sat at 24th. Sure, new year, new team, but it is essentially the same lineup build—Mr. Javy Báez is still in there, swinging at pitches in the 10th row down the first base side.
Small sample size, but when Yamamoto has an elite average hitter matchup strikeout percentage, he records six strikeouts 62.5% of the time and seven strikeouts 37.5% of the time across an eight-game sample. With this prop at plus money, I think it is worth the squeeze—especially with how swing-happy the Tigers can be.
Best Bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+130)
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