Cubs vs. Brewers NLDS Game 1: First Five Props | October 4, 2025

Cubs vs. Brewers: October baseball is back, and few matchups capture the spirit of the postseason like this one. A daytime showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers to open the NLDS, featuring two rivals who know each other far too well. The Cubs enter with momentum after taking down the Padres in the Wild Card round, while the Brewers have spent the past week resting and preparing after a dominant second half that pushed them near the top of the National League standings.

The big question heading into this one is simple: will the Brewers show any signs of rust after a week off, or will they pick up right where they left off? The Cubs are coming in hot, but Milwaukee has been one of the most dangerous teams at home all season. This first game sets the tone, and it feels like a perfect spot for the Brewers to jump on their rivals early and make a statement.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here. 

4.8/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
55% Welcome Bonus w/ code BNBOL55
See our review »
Up to $250 in Free Bets + 100 Spins
$10 Cash Bonus w/ Code BNEWS
Fastest Payouts

Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.

Last Month: 38-83 (-6.94u)

Last Week: 14-15 (+8.64u)

Cubs vs. Brewers Game 1 Best Bets – October 4

Will the Brewers show any sign of rust in Game One?

Check out BetOnline’s New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!

Game One of the NLDS between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. Yet another heated rivalry we get to enjoy this October. The Cubs arrive fresh off a Wild Card series win over the Padres, while the Brew Crew has been resting and waiting for their first October challenge. The question now-will Milwaukee’s momentum from the second half carry over, or will a week off cool them down? The timeless “rust versus rest” debate continues to live on in the divisional round.

Call me predictable, but once again the first five team total has my attention. The Brewers first five team total over 1.5 runs at $1.60 is a go this afternoon.

Boyd vs. Brewers

The Cubs will send out left-hander Matthew Boyd, who silenced the Padres in his last outing. However, the 34-year-old seems due for a letdown. His advanced numbers point to overperformance. In his last three starts, his ERA sits at 4.97, while his expected ERA jumps to 5.72, and his xFIP is 4.91. Overall, on the road this season Boyd owns a 3.90 ERA, allowing 5.4 hits and 2.5 runs per start this season.

Against right-handed hitters, the picture worsens. Over his last 60 faced, Boyd holds a 6.57 ERA, 8.08 xERA, and 5.22 xFIP while allowing 46.7% hard contact, a 13.3% barrel rate, and 26.7% line drives. Those right-handers have torched him with a .363 xBA, .654 xSLG, and .442 xwOBA.

Milwaukee has been elite at home all season, sitting top ten in most offensive categories over the last four weeks. Against lefties at home, they rank fourth in wRC+, fifth in wOBA, and second in walk rate, while owning the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball. In their last 60 plate appearances versus southpaws, five hitters are batting above .281, six hold a wOBA over .317, and seven carry an on-base percentage of .317 or better.

The Brewers finished the regular season fourth in first five scoring, and eighth at home, averaging just under three runs in the opening five frames. This feels like a prime spot for Milwaukee to strike early and set the tone. Boyd’s magic from the Wild Card series will not last. Expect early runs from a Brewers lineup hungry to keep their postseason fire burning.

Best Bet: Brewers First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-160) odds via BetOnline

Interested in More Content?

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!

In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!

1
Lucky Rebel Sportsbook logo 4.9/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,250 + 50 Free Slots Spins
See our review »
$1,250 Welcome Bonus
Bet Live on Your Favorite Sports
Earn More with Rebel Rewards!
2
4.8/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
55% Welcome Bonus w/ code BNBOL55
See our review »
Up to $250 in Free Bets + 100 Spins
$10 Cash Bonus w/ Code BNEWS
Fastest Payouts
3
4.7/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
100% up to $1000 Sign-Up Bonus
See our review »
Bonus Code: WELCOME1000
Monthly Cash Prizes
Vast Lines and Games Selection
4
4.6/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
55% Welcome Bonus w/ code BNSB55
See our review »
$250 in Free Bets with First Deposit
Same Game Parlays
Frequent Odds Boosters
5
4.5/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
50% Up to $750
See our review »
Best Prop Bets Selection
Boosted Odds on Parlays
One of the Oldest and Trusted Sites
6
4.4/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
125% Welcome Bonus
See our review »
Anonymous Crypto Betting
125% Welcome Bonus
Great Live Betting Selection
7
4.3/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
125% Deposit Bonus
See our review »
Fast & Easy Payouts
Best Deposit & Free Play Bonuses
Largest Selection of Sports & Games
8
4.2/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
125% Up to $3,125
See our review »
Best All Around Sportsbook
Most Competitive Odds
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
9
4.1/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
100% Up to $1,000
See our review »
Free Contests for Real Money
Bet on Esports
Sportsbook, Casino & Racebook
10
4.0/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,000 Sign-Up Bonus
See our review »
100% of Your First Deposit
$10 Casino Chip
Limited Time Only

Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News

More Betting Stories