Cubs vs. Braves: The Cubs could not have looked worse in last night’s opener, scratching across just a single run in a game where their offense never found a rhythm. Yet in betting, short memories often pay off, and this is the exact kind of spot where I like to lean right back into a team that burned people the night before.
Chicago enters tonight’s matchup with the number one rated offense on the slate, a deep lineup filled with bats capable of causing problems early and often. They get a rematch with Spencer Strider, who they already tagged for three runs in their last meeting, and his recent underlying numbers suggest he is more vulnerable than the market realizes. Add in the left-handed presence throughout the Cubs’ lineup against a pitcher who has been struggling badly against lefties, and you have a setup that looks far more favorable than the box score from game one might lead you to believe.
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Last Month: 54-90(-4.95u)
Last Week: 8-21 (-6.77u)
Cubs vs. Braves Best Bets – September 9
Can the Cubs bounce back in game two?
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After last night’s atrocious performance from the Cubs, I am shockingly running it back. Why? The matchup remains just as strong, and I fully expect this offense to bounce back after scoring only one run in game one of this three-game set.
I am once again playing the Cubs first five team total, but today it is set at 1.5 instead of 2.5 and priced at $1.50. I always say that 1.5 in the first five is a gift, and here I will drop my quote.
The Gift
“If you like an offense to have success and their first five team total is set at 1.5, the price should not matter unless it is above -180. It is a gift. Most teams average over two runs in the first five innings anyway, and you are getting a prop on an offense you trust against a pitcher who likely does not deserve that level of respect. The books are asleep at the wheel. This is, and always will be, a gift.” – Me
They are a go in my book tonight. The Cubs enter the slate with the number one rated offense, a lineup that features six elite-rated hitters and two more with great ratings, according to Batters-Box. When having a rating around .397, the Cubs have scored 3+ runs 64% of the time. That is a 39 game sample size.
Cubs vs. Strider Rematch
The Cubs will face Spencer Strider for the second time this month. Last Monday, Chicago pushed across three runs on five hits against him. Even though the Braves veteran has stronger numbers at home, he is still allowing 6.1 hits and 2.8 runs per start in Atlanta. Opponents own a .286 batting average against him as well.
Over his last five home starts, Strider carries a 6.57 ERA, 5.08 xERA, and 6.16 FIP. Opposing hitters have tagged him with a .277 xBA, .504 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA during that span, according to HandiGraphs.
Chicago’s bats have cooled in the second half, but the underlying numbers show life. Over their last ten games, nine Cubs hitters have an expected batting average of .259 or better, while eight have an expected slugging of .402 or better.
Five of the Cubs’ top eight bats will hit from the left side this evening, and that is a key angle in this matchup. Strider has been struggling against left-handed hitters in recent outings. Over his last 60 faced, he owns a 10.60 ERA, 7.18 xERA, and 4.61 xFIP. Those lefties have produced a .398 xBA, .659 xSLG, and .421 xwOBA. To make matters worse, Strider has been giving up a 3.09 HR/9 and allowing an 11.5% barrel rate.
This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Cubs offense, and the first five team total sitting at 1.5 is too good to ignore. They own the top-rated offense on tonight’s slate, feature a deep lineup filled with dangerous bats, and already showed they can find success against Strider earlier this month. His recent struggles only strengthen the case, and the Cubs’ underlying metrics point to an offense that is ready to wake up. At this price, it checks every box. In my book, this is one of those rare situations that deserves the label of a true gift.
Best Bet: Cubs First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-150) odds via BetOnline
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