We’ve got some Friday Night baseball at Kauffman Stadium tonight, so strap in your seatbelts and get ready to hop on the system-play train once again, as the Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: MLB Picks & Predictions
Carlos Santana and the Guardians are in Kansas City tonight
These two AL Central foes are battling for seeding purposes. The Guardians are currently eight games behind the Detroit Tigers for first place of the division, while the Royals are 9.5 games out of the top. The Minnesota Twins are just half a game behind KC, making the race for second place very, very tight.
Although the Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 contests, they were beat last night at home against the Baltimore Orioles, failing to pull off the sweep. Now they head to Kansas City for three games this weekend.
The Guardians have gotten the better of the Royals so far this season, winning four of their six meetings, including taking two of three the last time they were in town. Kansas City is 3-3 since returning to play but they are 3-1 in their last four, with this being their first series at home since the All Star Break.
Matchup Information – Guardians vs. Royals – July 25
- Venue & Location: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Friday, July 25, 2025
- First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Pitching Matchup
- Cleveland Guardians: Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)
- Kansas City Royals: Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
Guardians vs. Royals Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Guardians +1.5 (-205)
- Royals -1.5 (+177)
Moneyline
- Guardians -102
- Royals -108
Total
- Over 8.5 (+100)
- Under 8.5 (-120)
Both pitchers have seen this lineup before, but it was a while ago. Michael Wacha gave up one run on four hits in four innings against the Guardians back in March, allowing four walks as well, picking up the loss. The day before, Gavin Williams allowed two runs on four hits and a walk in five innings, walking away with no decision, but the Guardians ended up losing to the Royals.
Now these division rivals go head to head again, and you already know where our money is going.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Best Bets
Wacha starts for Kansas City tonight in Kauffman Stadium
Guardians vs. Royals MLB Prediction: Royals Win, Over 8.5
Best Bet: Royals TT Over 3.5 (-140) BetOnline
Don’t be afraid of this juice. Kansas City hits .245 as a team this season, at home, against right handed pitching, but that jumps to .250 during the month of July. The boys might be figuring some things out.
Plus this is a system play. The Royals have scored at least four runs in 20 of their last 27 games at Kauffman on a Friday Night, dating back to June of 2023. That’s a 74% win rate, for a bit that is priced like something that hits just 58.3% of the time, but I will admit, they’ve done so just half the time this season (4/8 games).
Now, Williams splits get much worst on the road, where his ERA rises to 4.17 and his WHIP to 1.57, nearly jumping 20 points. He’s allowed seven earned runs in his last two road outings in just 10.2 innings. His fastball and curveball (two most popular pitches) are both below league average as well, and Wacha is much more comfortable on the bump at home.
I’ll also be on the Royals ML at -108 and their RL at +177 for half a unit, as I trust their pitcher tonight.
Wacha’s ERA drops nearly a full run to 2.72 at home this season, and his WHIP sneaks down to sub 1.20. He’s given up just one earned run in each of his last two starts, and looked rock solid against the Marlins last Saturday. I think he shoves again tonight and gets plenty of run support from the boys in blue.
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