Cardinals vs. Mariners: September baseball is here, and with it comes the pressure of every pitch, every swing, and every inning carrying added weight. For teams on the postseason bubble, the margin for error has completely vanished. The Seattle Mariners are one of those clubs walking the fine line between staying alive and slipping out of contention, and tonight they find themselves in another must-win spot.
Seattle’s offense has been flashing its potential, and the metrics suggest another opportunity is on deck. With the Cardinals trotting out one of the most hittable arms in baseball, this game sets up to be all about the Mariners’ bats. Let us dive in and break down why the first five is the way to attack tonight.
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Last Month: 57-86 (+2.78u)
Last Week: 10-18 (-1.47u)
Cardinals vs. Mariners Best Bets – September 8
Can Julio Rodriguez and the Mariners keep this hot stretch alive?
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Rooting for a team that you need to lose ten of their last 19 games of the season to score runs is the ultimate sweat. However, I do not allow my futures to dictate what I bet on a day-to-day basis. If they are a-go today, bet them. I have to be on the Mariners this evening, and as much as it pains me, their offense is due to explode yet again. In their last two games, they piled up 28 runs. With that, we are on their first five team total over 2.5 at even money. I do love the plus money juice on a bet I am more nervous about, but the numbers fully back their offense up.
Mariners Trends
Seattle enters with the second-highest rated offense on the day, per Batters-Box. Their lineup features five elite-rated hitters, two great-rated hitters, and none above the league strikeout rate. Despite their success over the weekend, Seattle has been locked in overall during the last two weeks. They sit top ten in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO. The Mariners have played better ball at home this season, averaging around 2.5 runs in the first five innings. Meanwhile, on the road, St. Louis is giving up the third-most runs, allowing 3.16 per game.
To add to that, the Cardinals are sending out Miles Mikolas this evening as their starter. He has been awful on the road, giving up 6.4 hits and 3.6 runs per outing, while posting a 6.79 ERA and .327 opponent batting average. In his last five road starts, he has a 12.81 ERA, 10.62 xERA, and 6.07 xFIP. He has been flat-out horrendous away from Busch.
According to Batters-Box, Mikolas has the second-worst pitcher rating on the slate. This season he has also allowed over 40% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Mikolas vs. Lefties
To make matters worse, five of the Mariners’ top six bats this evening will bat from the left side. Left-handed hitters have been giving Mikolas nightmares. The last 30 he has faced own a .401 xBA, .644 xSLG, and .424 xwOBA. During that span, Mikolas carries a 5.68 ERA, 7.28 xERA, and 4.27 xFIP. Overall, left-handed bats against him this season have produced a .280 BA, .327 OBP, .507 SLG, and .834 OPS.
This sets up as yet another strong spot for the Seattle offense to do damage against a struggling arm. With Texas and Kansas City creeping up in the race for the final AL Wild Card slot, Seattle must continue to press and pile up wins. The urgency of the standings combined with the matchup in front of them makes this play too strong to ignore. If there were ever a time for the Mariners to capitalize, tonight is the night, and I am riding with them to stay hot at the plate.
Best Bet: Mariners First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+100) odds via BetOnline
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