Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks: The post-All-Star break grind rolls on, and we are heading west for tonight’s value. Few hitters have been more dialed in on the road lately than Alec Burleson. He matches up with a pitcher who has been consistently vulnerable to left-handed bats. Everything lines up for the Cardinals’ first baseman to do some damage.
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Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Best Bets – July 18
Will Alec Burelson show up in the desert?
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I love a man that shows up on the road. Today’s man of the evening is Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson, who finds himself in a great spot to succeed at the dish against a struggling arm.
The 26-year-old has earned an elite rating today on Batters-Box. He has only had eight games this season with an elite rating, so the sample size is too small to take too seriously. I am a die-hard double-digit sample size guy. However, for those looking to maybe parlay his hits, runs, RBI prop with something else — he has gone over 1.5 in five of those eight games. For the hit-parlay people, he has recorded a hit in six of those eight.
I digress.
The burly boy himself has been killing it not only on the road, but also against right-handed pitchers, owning a .322 average, .875 OPS, and a 148 wRC+. The guy loves being away from the Lou.
Burleson vs. Pfaadt
Today, he faces Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a poor pitcher rating this evening. On top of that, he has poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He is allowing 41% hard contact to opposing hitters this season. Left-handed hitters at Chase Field against Pfaadt are batting .316, along with a .447 slugging percentage.
The young right-hander has a very sub-par arsenal, with 78% of his pitches valued below league average, per FanGraphs. Burleson should feast this evening. Pfaadt’s best pitch is his sinker, which he throws 20% of the time. So far this season, Burleson owns a .289 average along with a 97 wRC+ against it — nothing eye-popping. However, he has very strong numbers against the other 80% of Pfaadt’s offerings.
I am not the biggest fan of paying the juice on bases props when it is not a superstar player, but I think this is worth the extra $1.10.
Best Bet: Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) odds via BetOnline
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