Brewers vs. Cubs: Insights and Predictions

Brewers vs. Cubs: The NLDS shifts to a decisive Game 4 tonight after the Cubs forced a win yesterday, extending the series. The Brewers now have the chance to respond and reclaim control as they look to advance to the NLCS. Momentum is on Milwaukee’s side, and their lineup is well-positioned to exploit Matthew Boyd’s struggles. Right-handed bats, recent success against left-handed pitching, and Boyd’s inconsistent performance all point to another strong outing. This game is more than just a matchup, it is an opportunity for the Brewers to silence the Cubs, finish the series, and prove their postseason mettle.

Let’s get into my best bet for Game 4!

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Brewers vs. Cubs Game 4 Best Bets – October 9

Can the Brewers end the series tonight?

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After the Cubs’ 4-3 win over the Brewers in Game 3, they look to tonight to keep the series alive. With news that Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Brewers, I expect this game to be all Milwaukee, especially with the Cubs turning to Matthew Boyd for a second time in this series after he struggled in Game 1. When Milwaukee went off for six runs on four hits and Boyd was pulled in the first inning. This could be a revenge spot for Boyd, but I do not see that happening. The Brewers are highly motivated and starving to get to the NLCS.

That is why, for the fourth straight game, we are backing the Brewers’ first five team total over 1.5. It is a must. Why do the books keep giving us such a great number at this price? Facing Boyd for the second time in less than a week only strengthens Milwaukee’s edge in this matchup.

Boyd enters today with below-average marks in both strikeout and ground-ball rates, per Batters-Box. The Brewers lineup profiles extremely well here, with only one hitter above league average in ground-ball rate and just two above the league strikeout rate.

Boyd’s Home Numbers

Social media has been hyping up Boyd’s home numbers, but no one is mentioning how rough he has been lately. Over his last five outings, he carries a 6.38 ERA, 6.32 xERA, and 5.24 xFIP, while allowing a .311 xBA, .533 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA. Even in his last three home starts, he holds a 4.30 ERA, 5.18 xERA, and 5.26 xFIP, two of those games resulting in multiple runs allowed against the Padres, Mets, and Rays.

Last 5 at home: 4.33 ERA, 4.48 xERA, 5.15 xFIP, 42.7% hard hit, 11.2% barrel
Opposing hitters: .278 xBA, .448 xSLG, .343 xwOBA

Last 3 at home: 4.30 ERA, 5.18 xERA, 5.26 xFIP,
Opposing hitters: .295 xBA, .478 xSLG, .367 xwOBA https://t.co/jOESauytJl

— Colby Marchio (@ColbyMBets) October 9, 2025

RHB vs. Boyd

Right-handed bats have been a major problem for Boyd. Over his last 60 faced, he has posted a 7.15 ERA and 8.55 xERA, allowing 48% hard contact and a 14% barrel rate. Those hitters own a .410 xBA, .725 xSLG, and .451 xwOBA during that stretch. Conveniently, all of Milwaukee’s top-rated bats will hit from the right side tonight.

The Brewers have also been crushing lefties recently, ranking top ten in wRC+, wOBA, line-drive percentage, and walk rate over the last four weeks, while sporting the lowest strikeout rate in baseball during that span.

This feels like the perfect spot for Milwaukee to close out the series and punch their ticket to the NLCS, while putting to rest the “little brother” narrative to the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers have the power, discipline, and confidence to repeat what they did to Boyd in Game 1. Hopefully, the Brewers can keep the streak alive and come together to rally their way to another strong first five!

Let’s Go BREWERS!

Best Bet: Brewers First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-125) odds via BetOnline

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