Brewers vs. Cubs: Key Insights for Bettors

Brewers vs. Cubs: The Brewers have been scorching, the Cubs have been stumbling, and yet the sportsbooks are still disrespecting Milwaukee. Sometimes you see a number that simply makes no sense, and this is one of those times. With momentum, matchup advantages, and the bats to back it up, the Brewers look poised to keep hammering away. The value on this prop is almost too good to believe, but I will take it every time. If the books want to hand out gifts in October, I am more than happy to unwrap them. Let us dive into why this number is flat-out wrong.

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Brewers vs. Cubs Game 3 Best Bets – October 8

Can the Brewers continue to dominate the Cubs?

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It baffles me that I was able to bet the prop listed below. I am on these markets every day, yet the sportsbooks continue to hand out serious value. There is no reason the scorching-hot Brewers, who have gone over this prop in back-to-back games in the first inning, should have their first five team total of 1.5 priced at even money. On top of that, Milwaukee has scored seven or more runs in the first five innings of both games in this series. They are clearly the superior team and I do not see them slowing down, especially not just because this game is “on the road” an hour south.

Brewers vs. Taillon

The Cubs send out veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon, who will be facing Milwaukee for the fourth time this season. The Brewers have scored at least one run in all three prior meetings, and two or more in two of those. The 33-year-old ranks poorly in average hitter matchup ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball percentage on Batters-Box. At home this season, Taillon owns a 3.86 ERA and 3.79 xERA, allowing a .260 xBA, .438 xSLG, and .361 xwOBA. His recent home outings have not impressed either. Over his last five starts at Wrigley, he has a 3.08 ERA and 4.03 xERA while giving up 50% hard contact and a 31.5% line drive rate. Hitters during that stretch have posted a .284 xBA, .416 xSLG, and .326 xwOBA.

Five of Milwaukee’s top six rated hitters on Batters-Box will bat from the right side, which could be a problem for Taillon. Right-handed hitters have crushed him recently, his last 60 faced own a .344 xBA and .468 xSLG.

On the road this season, Milwaukee has averaged 2.74 runs through the first five innings, while Chicago has allowed 2.04. The books may be pricing in potential regression after Milwaukee’s two explosive games, but I see it differently. Pat Murphy is arguably the best motivator in baseball and will have his guys locked in at Wrigley. It is time for the Brewers to stop being the Cubs’ little brother and make a statement on the North Side.

For those seeing a different price on this prop, I would have taken it up to -180. There is no reason this number should be 1.5. When the total is 1.5, it is all about the number. When it is 2.5, it is all about the price. Most teams average more than two runs in that span anyway, so when you see 1.5, you take it. It is a gift.

Best Bet: Brewers First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (+100) odds via BetOnline

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