Braves vs. Royals: Erick Fedde has been handing out free passes with consistency, especially on the road. The Royals rarely walk, but recent trends offer hope. With plus money on the table, there is value in targeting Fedde’s walk prop tonight.
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Braves vs. Royals Best Bets – July 29
Can Bobby Witt help us get a walk this evening?
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First-time alert!
I have not touched a walk prop all season, but tonight I am diving in with this sweaty play.
Entering today’s slate, one starting pitcher stands out for all the wrong reasons when it comes to command. Erick Fedde has struggled with walks more than any other starter on the slate over his last three outings, posting a 13% walk rate during that stretch. On the season, he has been a walking machine, averaging 2.35 walks per start and owning a 4.16 walks per nine rate.
The biggest issue with this look is that the Royals simply do not walk. They rank dead last in home walk rate. So why are we even looking at this? Over the last two weeks, Kansas City ranks 15th in walk rate and sits 28th in strikeout percentage at home. That tells me this lineup is at least putting the ball in play and potentially seeing enough pitches to work some walks.
Digging a little deeper, five Royals have posted walk rates above 13% over the last five games, per Handigraphs. Those bats are Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan India, John Rave, Kyle Isbel, and Maikel Garcia. Rave in particular leads the team with a walk rate of 23% over his last 30 plate appearances, more than 13% higher than the next closest hitter.
Fedde is allowing 2.5 walks per road start this season, and we are getting plus money for him to simply hit his average. I think it is worth a shot on the Royals staying disciplined at the plate tonight.
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